The five progressive voter types Labour needs for a majority

By the Editorial Team · Friday, September 25, 2026

Polling by Survation and 38 Degrees has identified five distinct progressive voter groups that comprise around 90% of Labour’s support, each with differing views on immigration and other policies but united by concerns over the cost of living and the NHS. Labour’s ability to win the next general election depends on addressing these shared priorities to maintain and grow backing within this diverse coalition.

Recent polling and research by Survation and 38 Degrees have identified five distinct groups of progressive voters critical to Labour’s path to a parliamentary majority in the next UK general election. Collectively termed the "progressive majority," these voters share key concerns such as the cost of living and the National Health Service (NHS) but diverge on issues including immigration, environmental policies, political trust, and the desired pace of change.

The five groups identified are:

1. **Rooted traditionalists** – Predominantly older, left-leaning economically, concerned about immigration but less focused on environmental issues. Many have moved from the Conservatives to Labour, but some remain open to shifting towards Reform UK. This group tends to prioritize cost of living pressures and NHS access.

2. **Open-hearted idealists** – Affluent, highly educated, socially liberal, and strongly pro-immigration, they lean towards Labour, the Greens, and Liberal Democrats. They are politically engaged and receptive to tactical voting, with healthcare, progressive taxation, and public services as key issues. They are sensitive to tougher immigration policies.

3. **Quiet persuadables** – The youngest and least politically engaged, this group holds centrist or uncertain views, with voting spread across parties. Often undecided, they are open to persuasion and tactical voting but require compelling reasons to engage fully in politics.

4. **Trusting optimists** – Young, urban, affluent, and highly educated, they show confidence in the economy and government, mostly supporting Labour and progressive economic policies. Socially, they tend to be more authoritarian, and their political loyalty may fluctuate if their financial or social conditions worsen.

5. **Struggling sceptics** – The least financially secure and politically trusting group, with many doubting voting’s impact. Despite left-leaning economic views, they are fragmented in support, dividing their votes among Labour, the Greens, and Reform UK. Improvements in economic conditions are seen as essential to winning back this group.

Demographically, these groups vary markedly. Rooted traditionalists are mainly older and overwhelmingly white, with a stronger presence outside London and a higher proportion of leave voters. In contrast, trusting optimists tend to be younger, ethnically diverse, urban residents, with higher educational attainment and remain voters. Open-hearted idealists also show high levels of education and remain voting patterns. Struggling sceptics generally have lower incomes and qualifications compared to other groups.

At present, these five groups make up approximately 90% of Labour’s voter base, an increase from 80% in the 2024 general election, indicating a concentration of Labour support within this coalition. Labour leads in voting intention across all groups but with considerable variation: support ranges from 25% among struggling sceptics to 57% among trusting optimists. While Labour maintains stronger allegiance among quiet persuadables and trusting optimists, its support has declined slightly among rooted traditionalists and struggling sceptics, some of whom have shifted towards Reform UK or the Greens.

Policy priorities among these groups reveal significant divisions, particularly concerning immigration, which is an important issue for rooted traditionalists (34%) and struggling sceptics (28%) but largely unimportant to open-hearted idealists (5%). Immigration is also an area where Labour is less trusted compared to Reform UK, with 21% versus 31% of the public expressing trust, respectively. However, cost of living and the NHS remain top concerns across all groups, with Labour leading on public trust for these issues.

Experts suggest that Labour’s challenge lies less in managing internal differences on divisive issues like immigration and more in delivering tangible improvements on shared priorities such as addressing the cost of living, energy bills, housing, and healthcare. An effective response to these common concerns may be key to maintaining and expanding the progressive majority needed for electoral success.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.