Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have lost his electoral mandate following Israel’s recent parliamentary elections, though he remains in power as final vote counts continue. While his political bloc still holds the largest number of seats in the Knesset, preliminary results indicate a decline of about 10 seats, leaving it short of the 61 needed for a majority. Meanwhile, parties representing Palestinian Israeli citizens saw significant gains, potentially doubling their previous combined total of 10 seats.

The outcome places Netanyahu’s main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, in a complex position. Eisenkot must decide whether to counter Netanyahu’s rhetoric and policies or seek cooperation with Arab-led parties, a move largely shunned by most opposition leaders during the campaign.

Netanyahu’s tenure has been marked by controversy, including accusations of corruption and increasing authoritarianism, notably attacks on Israel’s judiciary. His government faced widespread criticism for security lapses preceding the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, even as Netanyahu continues to project an image of strong security leadership. The prime minister has also courted support from far-right factions, whose leaders saw some electoral setbacks but whose political agenda appears to have influenced mainstream discourse.

The conflict with Iran remains a central theme of Netanyahu’s platform, contributing to regional instability. The ongoing Gaza conflict, which has resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian casualties, received limited attention during the campaign, though Israeli voters appear cognizant of its international repercussions, including the situation of Israeli hostages.

In a campaign marked by divisive rhetoric, Netanyahu employed a “right or Palestine” slogan and accused Palestinian citizens of Israel—who make up about 20 percent of the population—of attempting to “steal the election.” Palestinian voter turnout in Israel has historically been low, partly due to perceptions of systemic discrimination and political marginalization. The opposition’s failure to directly engage with Arab parties has contributed to scepticism among Palestinian Israelis regarding prospects for political change. Palestinians living in the occupied territories remain disenfranchised in the Israeli electoral system.

Netanyahu, known for political resilience, may seek to delay his ouster through another election. As the incumbent prime minister, he retains certain institutional advantages. Analysts warn that Netanyahu could also leverage his relationship with former U.S. President Donald Trump to push for renewed offensives against Iran following the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, potentially escalating conflict as a means of political survival.

Eisenkot’s bloc holds the mathematical possibility of unseating Netanyahu but faces internal and external challenges. Ahmad Tibi, a senior member of the Joint List of Palestinian parties, emphasized the importance of courage for opposition forces willing to form a coalition capable of removing the prime minister. Nonetheless, most opposition parties have publicly ruled out alliances with the Joint List or Ra’am, limiting options for a broad-based government. The political landscape remains fluid as Israel confronts ongoing social and security crises.