Yemen’s Houthis have rapidly advanced along the Red Sea coast, seizing significant territory and several strategic islands, including control over the Bab al-Mandab strait, a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy shipments. This swift expansion has displaced more than 100,000 people in a country already devastated by prolonged conflict and humanitarian crisis, with half the population reliant on international aid.
The capture of the Bab al-Mandab strait threatens to disrupt a vital shipping route alongside the Hormuz strait, heightening concerns over global energy supplies. The closure of an east-west Saudi pipeline, attributed to drone strikes by an Iran-backed militia in Iraq, has already limited crude oil flow, with estimates indicating a potential reduction of 120 million barrels over a month. The Houthis’ control of the strait could substantially prolong these disruptions. Redirecting oil shipments northwards to Asian markets would be slower, more costly, and remains vulnerable to further Houthi attacks on energy infrastructure.
Saudi Arabia, which launched its military campaign against the Houthis in 2015 to restore the internationally recognized Yemeni government, appears to be confronting the consequences of this protracted conflict. Despite heavy expenditure and significant civilian harm, Riyadh has not regained full control. Saudi hopes that diplomatic measures following Houthi forces’ movement to Sana’a in July 2026 would preserve the 2022 truce were undermined after a Saudi airstrike targeted Sana’a airport, enabling the Houthis to intensify their campaign.
While the Houthis are not merely proxies of Iran, their alignment with Tehran has strengthened amid escalating tensions in the region. The recent crisis over the Hormuz strait and ongoing US sanctions against Iran have given the rebels new incentive to leverage their control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Meanwhile, opposition forces within Yemen, including the internationally backed government and southern secessionist groups, remain deeply fragmented. The United Arab Emirates, once a key regional actor alongside Saudi Arabia, withdrew its troops earlier this year, further complicating the regional balance.
Saudi Arabia’s military efforts alone have failed to repel the Houthis. Efforts to secure external support, including appeals to former US President Donald Trump, have not yielded assistance. The Houthis have emphasized they are targeting Saudi interests specifically, yet their broader strategic positioning near Djibouti—a host to US, Chinese, and other military bases—raises concerns about potential escalation.
Facing this reality, Riyadh must choose between renewed full-scale military operations, previously deemed costly and unsustainable, or negotiations with a now emboldened Houthi movement making more demanding terms. Regional defense agreements, such as the Mecca pact signed in August involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, have not resulted in immediate coordinated responses.
The recent developments highlight the enduring complexity and humanitarian toll of Yemen’s conflict. Analysts argue that sustainable progress requires a political resolution free from foreign domination by either Riyadh or Tehran. Calls for intensified diplomatic efforts emphasize civilian protection and enhanced humanitarian aid while underscoring that a broader resolution to the Iran conflict is essential to stabilizing Yemen and the wider Middle East region.