Nearly 15 million barrels of crude oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. In response to recent disruptions to shipping caused by the ongoing conflict since late February, Gulf producers have begun revisiting long-standing plans to develop alternative export routes aimed at reducing their dependence on the strait.

According to a review of official statements and industry analyses, the aggregate capacity of these pipeline projects could ultimately reroute up to 11.5 million barrels per day (mbd) of the approximately 13.26 mbd that transit the strait, excluding Iranian exports. This distinction is significant because Iran accounted for about 1.69 mbd of crude shipments through Hormuz in the previous year and is expected to continue doing so indefinitely. Iran’s position stems from its control over the waterway, which it uses primarily to export crude oil, notably to China.

Andrew Wilson of BRS Shipbrokers noted that Tehran views the Strait of Hormuz not as a vulnerability but as a strategic asset. He indicated that Iran intends to maintain its shipments through the strait, regardless of the tensions affecting the region. Consequently, the efforts by neighboring Gulf producers to build bypass routes are not intended to resolve Iran’s leverage over the strait but rather to extricate themselves from the risks associated with the bottleneck.

The renewed focus on backup infrastructure follows years of underdeveloped plans that had been sidelined during periods of relative stability. The current environment of heightened geopolitical tension has accelerated the urgency to diversify export pathways. These alternative routes could include pipelines connecting production centers directly to ports on the Arabian Gulf or the Red Sea, reducing reliance on the narrow and potentially volatile maritime passage.

By mitigating their vulnerability to disruptions in Hormuz, Gulf producers aim to enhance the resilience of their oil exports amid ongoing regional instability. However, any pipeline expansion or new infrastructure will require significant investment and coordination, potentially shaping the energy security landscape in the Gulf for years to come.