President Donald Trump’s recent conflict with Iran appears to have left unresolved tensions that may lead to higher energy costs for American consumers, according to experts and policymakers. Central to the issue is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but vitally important maritime passage through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil flow daily—accounting for about one-fifth of global petroleum consumption and a quarter of seaborne oil trade.

Despite a 60-day agreement aiming to ease tensions, Iranian officials have initiated discussions about imposing new charges on vessels navigating the strait. While the Trump administration denies these are tolls, describing them instead as routine fees, analysts warn that any additional costs on shipping through the strait are likely to translate into increased fuel prices worldwide. This “Iran gas tax” would affect American households by raising transportation and consumer costs, even if the United States does not directly purchase Iranian oil.

The strait’s strategic significance gives Iran considerable leverage over global energy markets. Goldman Sachs estimated that even with full utilization of alternative oil export routes, about 16 million barrels per day would still rely on passage through Hormuz. Past hostilities caused tanker insurance rates to spike and shipping markets to price in heightened risks, signaling the potential for significant supply disruptions.

Despite President Trump’s assertions of having addressed the threat, Iranian authorities continue to assert control over shipping through the strait, proposing expanded oversight and fee structures. Observers caution that this operational influence could suppress energy flows and raise costs long term, suggesting that Iran’s leverage persists beyond the cessation of active conflict.

Experts emphasize that the global oil market’s interconnected nature means supply shocks or increased shipping costs anywhere reverberate broadly, ultimately affecting prices at American gas stations and grocery stores. Advocates argue that reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil would mitigate such vulnerabilities, highlighting recent growth in domestic renewable energy capacity as a pathway to resilience.

In 2025, the United States added 43 gigawatts of new solar power capacity, with solar energy accounting for 61% of the nation’s electricity demand growth. This trajectory toward cleaner, homegrown energy sources is considered a crucial strategy to shield American consumers from geopolitical risks influencing global energy prices.

However, there are concerns that policy decisions under the Trump administration have slowed this progress. More than $22 billion in planned clean-energy investments were canceled or withdrawn within the first half of 2025, impacting an estimated 38,000 jobs and hindering the expansion of industries critical to American energy security.

U.S. Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, co-chair of the bipartisan Congressional Solar Caucus, emphasized the need to accelerate domestic energy development, including manufacturing, supply chain strengthening, and electric grid modernization. He warned that as long as hostile actors retain influence over key energy transit points like the Strait of Hormuz, American families will remain vulnerable to rising energy costs linked to those dynamics.

While Trump’s administration portrays the conflict as resolved, analysts and lawmakers caution that Iran’s enduring leverage in the region continues to pose economic risks for the United States and its consumers.