Israel’s longest border, stretching along the Jordan River Valley from the Dead Sea to Eilat and Aqaba, remains a critical security frontier amid growing regional uncertainty. Israeli military officials have acknowledged plans to replace the aging barrier along this frontier, emphasizing a combination of ground forces and advanced technology to counter ongoing threats such as weapons smuggling and illicit trafficking. The proposed security upgrade, projected to cost around one billion shekels, reflects the fragile nature of the existing infrastructure.

The stability of neighboring Jordan is increasingly tenuous. The Hashemite monarchy, historically established by colonial powers as a counterbalance to the rise of the House of Saud, governs a population predominantly of Palestinian origin. This demographic composition, coupled with the influence of organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood and broad support for Hamas, presents significant challenges for Jordan’s internal cohesion. Palestinians have yet to be substantially integrated into the kingdom’s government or top security structures, further complicating the domestic situation.

For years, Israeli defense officials regarded Jordan as so crucial to national security that intervention—including deployment of ground forces to support the monarchy—was considered a likely option should the kingdom approach collapse. However, this perspective has shifted; current assessments indicate Israel would be reluctant to commit soldiers directly, though covert support or special operations remain possible if deemed strategically necessary.

Iran’s long-term interest in Jordan adds a volatile dimension to the country’s stability. Despite recent setbacks to its proxy networks, Tehran continues to view Jordan as a potential front for destabilization efforts aimed at undermining Israel. Iran’s broader regional ambitions and its “Shi’ite Twelver jihadist” ideology prioritize creating disorder in neighboring states to facilitate expansion and threaten adversaries.

The war with Iran, expected eventually to subside, would not end Tehran’s regional influence. Neighboring countries such as Jordan, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates face ongoing pressure to manage the consequences of an emboldened Iranian theocratic regime capable of rebuilding its network of proxies and militias.

While Jordan’s ruling establishment is Sunni, the kingdom could become a recipient of Iranian financial and political support channeled through aligned radical Sunni factions. Iran’s goal is not necessarily direct control of Jordan but rather fomenting instability sufficient to weaken the state and expose Israel’s eastern border to new security threats. An unstable Jordan could open pathways for Iranian-backed weapons and militias to infiltrate Israeli territory, transforming a relatively quiet frontier into an active conflict zone.

Jordan’s eastern neighbor Iraq represents another key variable. Under Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, Iraq remains vulnerable to Iranian influence through militias integrated into its security forces and political institutions. Although Iraq’s Shi’ite majority shares religious ties with Iran, ethnic and cultural distinctions between Arab Iraqis and Persian Iranians offer potential leverage points for regional actors seeking to counterbalance Tehran’s reach.

Maintaining Jordan’s stability thus extends beyond preserving a peace treaty; it is integral to preventing a new and expansive front along Israel’s eastern border. Israeli and Western interests converge on supporting fragile partner states in the region to mitigate the risks posed by evolving Iranian ambitions and internal pressures within Jordan and Iraq.