As the United States approaches its midterm elections this November, former President Donald Trump remains a central figure shaping the political landscape, despite not being a candidate himself. Trump is actively engaged in efforts to support Republican candidates, planning appearances in 35 congressional districts, featuring prominently in campaign advertisements, and set to speak at the Republican Party’s inaugural midterm convention in Texas this week.

The midterms are widely viewed as a referendum on Trump’s influence and the current Republican Party agenda. However, recent polling indicates significant challenges for the GOP. Independent voters, a critical segment of the electorate, express considerable dissatisfaction with Trump, with approval ratings among this group hovering between 22% and 27% across six recent surveys. According to Gallup data released this week, Democrats currently hold a 10-point advantage in party identification, with 49% citing affiliation with the Democratic Party compared to 39% for Republicans, marking the largest margin since 2008.

Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics offers a somewhat less stark outlook, showing Trump’s overall job approval rating near 40% and narrowing the Democratic lead to around six points. Yet, public sentiment remains muted, as only about 35% of respondents believe the country is heading in the right direction.

Compounding the political uncertainty is ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, particularly the recent resurgence of conflict involving Iran. Renewed Iranian attacks on U.S. interests in the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere have hindered Trump’s efforts to frame the situation primarily as an economic dispute, contributing to record-high fuel prices nationally. On Labor Day, the average price for a gallon of gasoline reached $4.15, surpassing the previous peak of $3.82 in 2012.

Historically, midterm elections experience lower voter turnout than presidential contests, a trend expected to hold this year. While 66% of eligible voters participated in the 2020 presidential election, midterm turnout dropped to 49% in 2018 and 46% in 2022. Republicans are relying on Trump to energize their base, particularly supporters aligned with his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, aiming to close the enthusiasm gap that currently favors Democrats.

This strategy carries inherent risks for Republican candidates, who face the challenge of defending a party record and leadership that remain unpopular with many voters, while also trying to appeal to more moderate or swing voters. Democrats are favored to regain control of the House of Representatives and are competitive in Senate races where they seek to gain at least four seats.

While unforeseen developments could shift the electoral dynamics, the midterms are largely expected to revolve around Trump’s continued influence. Should Democrats secure congressional majorities, it would constrain any remaining agenda for the Republican Party and limit Trump’s platform during the final two years of the current presidential term.