A decade after Colombia’s historic 2016 peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc), violence and conflict in many regions have intensified, driven largely by the expansion of drug trafficking organizations focused on cocaine production. In Cauca province—located in the southwest of the country—indigenous leaders report increasingly aggressive confrontations among armed groups, many motivated by economic gain rather than political ideology.
The Farc’s disarmament left a power vacuum that has been exploited by multiple illegal armed organizations, which have professionalized and scaled up cocaine production across Colombia. According to United Nations data, the area cultivated with coca plants increased from around 170,000 hectares in 2018 to 253,000 hectares in 2023. Improved agricultural techniques, new coca varieties, and more efficient processing have nearly doubled yields over the last two decades. Some operations have adopted advanced technologies, including the use of drones for crop fertilization, while clandestine laboratories capable of processing several tonnes of cocaine monthly have been uncovered.
Colombia’s changing cocaine landscape is marked by the fragmentation of control, with three primary groups dominating the trade: the National Liberation Army (ELN), the dissident factions of former Farc members who rejected the peace talks, and the Clan del Golfo, an organized crime group with paramilitary origins. The Clan del Golfo, in particular, is described by analysts as the largest criminal enterprise in Colombia today, operating with a corporate-style structure that extends into drug trafficking, illegal gold mining, and human trafficking.
This surge in cocaine production has fueled violence and crime both domestically and internationally. Cocaine trafficking routes now reach from Colombia to new markets in Europe, where consumption has surged in recent years. European authorities reported record cocaine seizures in 2023, with major busts such as the confiscation of 35.5 tonnes in Düsseldorf, Germany. The proliferation of cocaine in Europe has raised concerns about criminal infiltration into ports, law enforcement, and judicial institutions, with some experts urging greater international cooperation.
Efforts to address the expansion of armed groups and drug trafficking have been complex and contested. Outgoing President Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla himself, launched a "Paz total" strategy in 2022, aiming to negotiate with all illegal armed organizations. Critics argue that the initiative was poorly coordinated and allowed criminal groups to capitalize on negotiations to extend their operations. Colombian Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez noted that some gangs exploited the government’s goodwill to increase production and territorial control.
The intensification of armed group presence is reflected in growing numbers: Colombian authorities report that membership in illegal armed organizations more than doubled from about 12,800 in 2018 to over 27,000 in 2023. Violence, including kidnappings and extortion, has risen even as homicide rates remain lower than the peak levels seen during the 1990s era dominated by Pablo Escobar.
The political response to this security challenge is a key issue in Colombia’s upcoming presidential runoff between Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right former criminal lawyer calling for a hardline military approach, and Iván Cepeda, a leftwing senator advocating continued dialogue. De la Espriella has pledged a rapid "military offensive" targeting drug trafficking leaders and seeks a renewed US-backed campaign akin to the early 2000s Plan Colombia. His stance has garnered support from former US President Donald Trump, who denounces leftist policies and favors a militarized approach. Conversely, Cepeda remains committed to negotiated peace, though critics point to the lack of clear plans following the perceived failures of Petro’s "Paz total" policy.
Regional and international experts caution that any military solution faces significant obstacles. Unlike the Farc, which operated from defined jungle encampments, current armed groups often embed themselves within local populations, complicating efforts to combat them without alienating communities. Former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos emphasizes that restoring state control requires a multifaceted approach: combining military pressure with social investment, expanded policing, economic development programs, and mechanisms for addressing past crimes.
As Colombia navigates this turbulent moment, the challenge of dismantling well-entrenched criminal networks remains critical not only for national stability but also for the broader security landscape across Latin America and beyond.