Israeli security forces have increased operations in the West Bank amid mounting concerns over terrorist activities and the internal stability of the Palestinian Authority (PA). Recent assessments have raised alarms about the potential threat posed by elements within the Palestinian Authority Security Forces (PASF), which are believed to have incorporated terrorists into their ranks.
According to security analyses, the PASF has grown substantially since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, when over 6,000 militants from Gaza crossed into Israel. Approximately half of those attackers were affiliated with known terrorist groups such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. The remainder included militants from Gaza not formally linked to these organizations. Notably, the assault reached as far inland as the city of Ofakim, some 22 kilometers from the Gaza border.
The PASF is estimated to be more than ten times the size of the force responsible for that attack and is said to be better equipped and trained. Analysts warn that if these forces were to initiate hostilities, they could exploit armored vehicles and bypass Israeli checkpoints, potentially allowing them to infiltrate densely populated areas near the Green Line. This is seen as a more significant threat compared to previous attacks, which involved militants primarily using lighter vehicles.
Observers highlight that the PA leadership views the October 2023 assault as a strategic success, despite heavy Palestinian casualties and destruction in Gaza. The aftermath has included intensified international criticism of Israel, arrest warrants issued against Israeli officials, and formal recognition of a Palestinian state by several Western countries, notably France.
At the same time, the PA faces internal challenges marked by economic hardship and a leadership succession struggle. President Mahmoud Abbas, aged 90, and his Fatah faction are reportedly seeking to maintain control amid growing uncertainty, with potential successors described as militant figures. Experts warn that Abbas's eventual departure could lead to political turmoil within the PA.
Israeli governments have reportedly maintained a policy of caution and limited engagement in response to these developments. Authorities have emphasized deterrence and intelligence monitoring, asserting that the PA remains preoccupied with domestic needs rather than orchestrating attacks. However, some security analysts argue that such assumptions could prove dangerous if the PA’s paramilitary units become actively hostile.
Former Israeli military legal official Maurice Hirsch has criticized the reliance on deterrence and the current approach toward the PA. He has echoed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stance opposing PA involvement in Gaza, describing the PA as more part of the problem than the solution. Hirsch advocates for decisive Israeli action to dismantle the PASF to prevent future large-scale attacks.
The evolving security situation highlights the complexity of managing threats stemming from within the Palestinian Authority and underscores the urgency for Israeli authorities to reassess their strategies in Judea and Samaria to avoid further violence.
