With just two weeks remaining before Israel’s national election, the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot appears to have gained a strategic advantage over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, despite ongoing internal disputes and leadership challenges.

Opposition parties have united by signing surplus-vote agreements, a tactical move designed to maximize seats by pooling excess votes. Conversely, Netanyahu’s camp may face electoral setbacks due to the refusal of far-right candidate Itamar Ben-Gvir to enter into a similar agreement with Ofer Winter’s party. This division could result in wasted votes within the right-wing bloc, potentially weakening Netanyahu’s overall standing.

The internal dynamics within the opposition are not without friction. While Eisenkot asserts his leadership and promotes his faction as the largest in the bloc, some allied parties have openly resisted acknowledging his authority, intensifying tensions over the bloc's hierarchy. Additionally, a non-aggression pact brokered among the opposition — reportedly during a meeting in Yair Lapid’s basement — is reportedly under strain amid ongoing disagreements.

Within Netanyahu’s faction, the situation appears markedly turbulent. Ofer Winter’s political trajectory is marred by fluctuating poll numbers and recent setbacks, including the withdrawal of Davidi Ben Zion, deputy head of the Samaria Regional Council, from Winter’s list. Senior opposition figures predict that Winter may ultimately fail to pass the electoral threshold.

Likud-affiliated forces have launched a concerted campaign against Winter and his associates, including public attacks on Yosef Haddad, Winter’s prominent deputy. Haddad has faced accusations ranging from endorsing a two-state solution to, more recently, allegedly desecrating religious principles by assisting ill children from Gaza. Analysts remain divided on the nature of these attacks—whether they represent genuine attempts to undermine Winter or serve as a calculated strategy to maintain Netanyahu’s dominance by presenting Winter’s faction as the sole right-wing alternative.

Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is reportedly making inroads with younger voters, particularly through engagement efforts such as panel discussions and mock elections held in high schools. Bennett’s campaign aims to reach a demographic largely disengaged from the traditional binary political debate centered on Netanyahu.

As the election approaches, the opposition coalition’s ability to manage internal conflicts and present a united front will be critical, especially against the backdrop of potential fragmentation within Netanyahu’s bloc. The interplay of these factors will likely influence voter behavior in the final stretch of the campaign.