The Global Security Forum held in Doha from October 19 to 21, 2026, underscored significant shifts in regional security dynamics in the Middle East amid ongoing geopolitical upheaval. Two notable developments emerged at the forum: the United States signaling a retreat from its traditional role as a security guarantor in the region, and the signing of the Badr Memorandum of Understanding, a new defense cooperation agreement between Qatar, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkey.
These moves come against a backdrop of heightened instability that has marked the Middle East since October 7, 2023, when Israel launched a military offensive in Gaza, followed by a series of escalating conflicts. Of particular note was the brief but consequential 12-Day War in June 2025, during which Israel mounted a full-scale attack on Iran and the United States conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The conflict ended with a US-brokered ceasefire, yet it marked a turning point by directly involving both Israel and Iran in open warfare.
Despite the ceasefire, regional tensions have remained high. Many observers in Gulf countries have expressed skepticism about the durability of the peace, anticipating renewed Israeli or American strikes against Iran. Concerns have also risen over Iran’s response, which included extensive missile and drone attacks on the six Gulf states—none of which were official parties to the conflict—as well as strikes reaching Jordan and Egypt, targeting civilian infrastructure.
Following an April 2026 ceasefire, hopes emerged for renewed diplomatic engagement when the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June. However, the agreement quickly unraveled amid mutual recriminations, and violence resumed, notably with renewed Houthi assaults on Saudi Arabia. These developments have contributed to a pessimistic outlook on the region’s security situation, with expectations of intermittent conflict and instability persisting for the foreseeable future.
In response to the shifting landscape, regional actors have moved to establish new cooperative frameworks. In August, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan formed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, while Saudi Arabia also joined a Multinational Maritime Defence Alliance comprising 14 countries aimed at safeguarding navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait. Turkey’s participation in both groups, as well as the newly-formed Badr alignment, reflects efforts to create overlapping, complementary security partnerships rather than rigid competing blocs.
Some analysts suggest that emerging geopolitical realignments could crystallize around a closer UAE-Israel partnership on one side and various alliances of Muslim-majority states on the other. Nevertheless, ongoing détente between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, especially concerning cooperation in Yemen, indicates that regional divisions are not yet firmly entrenched.
The notion of a "post-American Middle East" has circulated for years, rooted in recurring doubts about the durability of US engagement following its 2003 invasion of Iraq and subsequent interventions. Ambassador Thomas Barrack, the US envoy to Turkey and Special Envoy to Iraq and Syria, acknowledged at the forum the repeated shortcomings of American interventionism in the region. His comments reflected a candid assessment echoed by former President Donald Trump during his May 2025 visit to Riyadh, where he criticized US policy failures in the Middle East and questioned the effectiveness of interventionist approaches.
Despite these acknowledgments, the launch of Operation Epic Fury against Iran in 2026 highlighted ongoing contradictions in US policy, raising questions about future developments. Given the volatile security environment and potential flare-ups coinciding with the US midterm elections in November and the transition of Congress in January, regional states are increasingly focused on establishing autonomous security mechanisms to safeguard their stability amid uncertainty.