Yemen’s history is marked by repeated foreign attempts to control its rugged terrain and strategic location, all of which have ended in failure or limited success. Dating back to 26 BCE, when the Roman Empire under Augustus sent Aelius Gallus with 10,000 men into what was known as Arabia Felix, the campaign faltered due to illness and harsh conditions, forcing a retreat at Marib. Later, the Ottomans made two major incursions: first in the mid-16th century, capturing Aden and Sanaa before being expelled by local imams after about a century, and again in the late 19th century until the end of Ottoman rule in 1918. These campaigns incurred heavy losses and left a lasting legacy of grief reflected in Turkish lamentations. Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser also faced significant setbacks during his intervention in the 1960s, sending tens of thousands of troops before eventually withdrawing and referring to Yemen as his “Vietnam.” Meanwhile, the founder of Saudi Arabia, Abdulaziz bin Abdulrahman, opted against a full military campaign into Yemen’s mountains in 1934, concluding instead with the Treaty of Ta’if, and advised against future Saudi military ventures there.

Yemen’s geography and tribal social structures have served as natural barriers to external conquest but have also contributed to the country’s difficulties in modernization. Despite its strategic value, Yemen has struggled to capitalize on regional economic and political progress, partly due to internal divisions along tribal and sectarian lines. This has kept Yemen outside the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), despite formal bids for membership and partial participation in some committees since the 1990s. Yemeni expatriates, particularly from Hadhramaut, have found prosperity abroad, establishing influential trading and business communities throughout the Indian Ocean region.

The ongoing conflict, which reignited in July after a truce ended in 2022, has intensified. Saudi Arabia launched a strike targeting Sanaa’s airport to prevent Iranian aircraft access; in response, Houthi forces fired missiles at Saudi airports and declared blockades on Saudi shipping. Recent attacks have included missile strikes on King Khalid Airport in Riyadh, which killed 13 pilgrims, and damage to Aramco’s headquarters. These escalations prompted Saudi air operations over Sanaa, Egypt's offer to help defend Saudi Arabia, and U.S. consideration of military support. Both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis remain entrenched, with neither side able to decisively conquer or assimilate the other. The Houthis have significantly expanded their fighting forces since 2015, while Saudi Arabia retains economic resources and regional alliances.

The conflict centers around two key figures: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, 41, and Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, in his forties. Both have assumed power amid great challenges, maintaining firm control within their territories. Mohammed bin Salman has overseen rapid social and economic changes in Saudi Arabia, while Abdul-Malik al-Houthi has consolidated control over much of Yemen’s population and transformed tribal militias into a substantial asymmetric military force. Observers note that neither side is likely to achieve victory through continued warfare, and a negotiated settlement remains the only viable solution.

Despite concerns about Iranian influence over the Houthis, some former U.S. officials assert that Iran does not dictate Yemen’s decisions. Saudi Arabia also possesses sufficient autonomy to shape its policies independently. Both parties are reportedly wary of broader regional ambitions, including a vision of Israel as a dominant regional power announced in Jerusalem in 2025. Both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis acknowledge the ongoing Palestinian conflict as a destabilizing factor and recognize the potential benefits of constructive ties with regional and global powers.

The historical pattern suggests that war is unlikely to yield lasting success, often resulting in protracted suffering. Mohammed bin Salman himself has expressed reluctance to engage in large-scale ground operations in Yemen due to the human costs, and previously indicated that eventual cooperation with the Houthis is necessary. The future of the conflict thus hinges on whether both leaders choose to pursue peace and development or persist in destructive hostilities.