At the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham on Sunday, leader Kemi Badenoch expressed firm confidence in securing victory at the next general election, declaring, “When we win the next election... And we will win the next election.” Her optimistic outlook contrasts with the current precarious state of the party in Parliament and the opinion polls.

The Conservatives currently hold 118 seats in the House of Commons, a decline from their 2024 election result, partly due to defections to Reform UK. Polling numbers show the party garnering around 20 percent support, lower than their lowest national election performance since 1834. Comparatively, in 1997—the nadir of Conservative fortunes under Tony Blair—they still won 165 seats, though it took nearly two decades to regain a majority.

Despite these challenges, Badenoch’s leadership appears to have galvanized party activists. Just a year ago, she was widely viewed as a leader in danger of replacement, with figures like Robert Jenrick considered potential successors. Jenrick’s eventual defection to Reform UK compelled Badenoch to act decisively, preempting his move and solidifying her standing within the party. This episode left deep divisions between those still in the party and defectors such as Jenrick and Suella Braverman, both of whom are reportedly reviled among Conservative ranks. Chairman Kevin Hollinrake ruled out any future reconciliation or electoral alliances with Reform.

Reform UK has, however, struggled to consolidate its position, with polls showing its support waning alongside that of the Conservatives. A recent multilevel regression and post-stratification poll placed Labour at 25 percent, Reform at 22 percent, Conservatives at 20 percent, and the Liberal Democrats at 10 percent. The Tory leadership views Reform’s decline as partly a consequence of controversies surrounding its prominent figure Nigel Farage, including a parliamentary standards inquiry related to undeclared financial gifts amid his Bitcoin connections, which could result in his Commons suspension or prompt a by-election in Clacton.

For the Conservatives, the primary electoral challenge remains how to reclaim ground from Reform UK while also contending with other opposition parties. Historically, the party has faced severe setbacks—most notably in 1846, 1906, 1945, and 1997—but current circumstances are complicated by the presence of a right-wing rival party siphoning off disaffected Conservative voters, reducing the likelihood of straightforward recovery through traditional party consolidation.

Badenoch herself enjoys higher personal popularity than the party and has sought to reframe Conservative policy through a recently released pamphlet, *The Right Way*, echoing Margaret Thatcher’s 1976 *The Right Approach*. This signals a desire to shed aspects of the previous leadership’s policy platform, including some pledges from the 2024 election campaign. Efforts to select parliamentary candidates also reflect a move toward aligning closely with Badenoch’s leadership direction, often at the expense of those endorsing past party positions such as net zero commitments or support for the European Convention on Human Rights.

Political analysts at the conference, including polling experts Sir John Curtice and Luke Tryl, offered cautious optimism about Badenoch’s rising appeal but underscored the ongoing challenges facing the Conservatives. Despite Labour’s difficulties and the party’s own internal struggles, the Tories remain broadly unpopular with many voters, still held responsible for issues like immigration. While the party maintains relative strength on economic competence, recapturing lost seats, particularly in Lib Dem-held constituencies, remains a formidable hurdle.

The future electoral success of the Conservative Party hinges significantly on Badenoch’s ability to broaden her personal support into party-wide revival. As the party’s prospects rest largely on her leadership, the coming months will be critical in determining whether the Conservatives can transform internal resilience into electoral gains.