With Alberta’s referendum on separation just weeks away, recent polling indicates that a significant majority of residents continue to favour remaining part of Canada, casting doubt on the viability of efforts to advance secession.
An Ipsos survey shows that 70 per cent of Albertans want to stay within the country, while 20 per cent support holding a binding referendum on separation. However, if such a vote were held, only 14 per cent said they would actually choose to leave Canada. Similarly, a separate poll conducted by Janet Brown Opinion Research for CBC News found that 72 per cent of Albertans favour remaining in Canada, while 23 per cent support initiating the legal process for a binding referendum on separation—a decline from 27 per cent measured earlier in April.
Despite pockets of separatist sentiment, predominantly in rural areas among older men, public enthusiasm for outright separation has never reached a majority in the province. Alberta’s political history includes persistent grievances directed at federal Liberal governments, which some provincial conservative leaders have portrayed as hostile to Alberta’s interests.
Premier Danielle Smith has recently expressed frustration with what she describes as the federal government’s harsh treatment of Alberta. Speaking at an online forum alongside former Reform Party leader Preston Manning, she questioned whether Canada truly wants Alberta to remain part of the federation. Nonetheless, data from the Canada Energy Regulator shows that Alberta’s oil production has significantly expanded over recent years. Since 2007, oil output has doubled, and from 2013 to 2025, Canada’s crude oil production increased by approximately 41 per cent. In 2025 alone, Alberta added 182,000 barrels per day, aided in part by a new pipeline to the West Coast that was completed during Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tenure.
Though Alberta has remained one of Canada’s wealthiest provinces over decades, conservative provincial governments have frequently criticized federal fiscal policies as unfairly disadvantaging the province. The upcoming separation referendum, alongside nine additional questions on the ballot, has drawn criticism for stoking divisive regional tensions and scapegoating immigrant communities, according to some observers.
Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) has faced internal pressures from separatist factions, leading to the unexpected inclusion of the referendum question, which Smith did not campaign on. Many Albertans have voiced frustration over what they see as a distraction and an expensive political maneuver aimed at consolidating the Premier’s standing within her party, following her predecessor Jason Kenney’s resignation amid similar internal conflicts.
Public sentiment among many residents reflects pride in Alberta’s natural beauty and prosperity, as well as appreciation for Canada’s global standing under Prime Minister Trudeau’s leadership. Recent surveys suggest a greater respect among Albertans for figures such as former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney than for their provincial government.
Looking ahead, the outcome of the referendum is expected to shape the future dynamics within the UCP. Should the secession question fail to gain traction, as polls suggest, dissenting party members may demand a leadership change and push for a more forceful advocate of separation. Smith will face increasing pressure to either align with the separatist faction’s agenda or uphold a principled position rejecting the push for Alberta’s breakup from Canada.