As New Zealand moves toward closer defence collaboration with Australia, an emerging shift in Australian defence policy has highlighted the need for New Zealanders to better understand their neighbour’s strategic outlook, particularly concerning regional security challenges.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Defence Conference 2026, held recently under the theme “Securing the Region for Uncertainty,” served as a platform for officials and experts to articulate key messages shaping Australia’s approach. Central among these were three points: China is explicitly identified as an adversary, deterrence has regained prominence, and defence is no longer solely a military matter but involves the whole of society.

Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles emphasized the country’s intent to invest in both advanced large-scale defence platforms and more cost-effective options. Concurrently, Australia seeks to enhance its strategic autonomy while deepening relationships with partners to expand “options for action,” a strategy described as providing “sovereignty with good choices.” This is seen as a response to recent uncertainties in global alliances, including the unpredictable nature of U.S. foreign policy during the previous administration and calls for increased allied burden-sharing.

Discussions at the conference also delved into the complex concept of deterrence. Defence strategy expert Professor Peter Dean noted that deterrence remains a nuanced and evolving idea, encompassing general, cumulative, collective, and “punishment” dimensions, and ultimately dependent on the perceptions of adversaries. Markus Garlauskas, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Scowcroft Centre for Strategy and Security, remarked on the challenges of credible deterrence, pointing to Washington’s hesitancy to explicitly name China as a threat as a complicating factor.

Following this, conference language hardened, with multiple speakers openly referring to China as an adversary. Moreover, the dialogue extended beyond purely military considerations. Emphasis was placed on deterrence as a whole-of-government and whole-of-nation effort, implying that national defence requires coordinated action across public institutions and society at large.

For New Zealand audiences, the framing of China as an adversary and the revived focus on deterrence—particularly given its historical association with nuclear strategy—marks a significant and somewhat uncomfortable departure from earlier discourse. The broader call to reconceptualize defence beyond military assets to a societal scale further signals a shift in strategic thinking.

The implications for New Zealand are clear: as Australia advances these debates openly, New Zealand cannot remain detached. There is a pressing need for New Zealanders to engage in a comprehensive conversation about national security, including the role of China, the meaning and application of deterrence, and the broader societal dimensions of defence policy.

To facilitate this, the Centre for Defence and Security Studies at Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa Massey University is launching initiatives aimed at raising public awareness and broadening engagement with defence and security topics. This effort, starting in 2027, seeks to bring diverse voices into the national dialogue, moving beyond the traditional confines of defence discourse centred in Wellington.

As New Zealand considers its own strategic priorities in a shifting regional landscape, fostering informed, wide-ranging discussions will be essential to navigating future challenges and partnerships.