Six months after a series of U.S.-Israeli strikes disrupted fossil fuel production in the Middle East and escalated tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, new data reveals significant shifts in the global energy landscape. The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, has sharply increased fossil fuel prices, prompting a marked pivot toward renewable energy sources and reshaping economic fortunes across regions.

According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), importers of fossil fuels worldwide have incurred more than $330 billion in additional costs since the onset of hostilities—a figure comparable to Finland’s projected GDP for 2025. Meanwhile, several oil and gas producers outside the immediate conflict zone have benefited from rising prices, leveraging increased demand.

Countries that had already invested in renewable energy infrastructure prior to the conflict have generally weathered the crisis more effectively. China is a prominent example. CREA estimates that renewable energy projects initiated since 2020 enabled China to avoid nearly $8 billion in fossil fuel import expenses between March and July. The country has also capitalized on rising clean technology demand globally, recording five consecutive months of record clean tech exports by dollar value since the conflict began. Chinese car manufacturers notably shipped over 500,000 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles abroad in July, a 150% increase from the previous year.

The conflict has also proved financially advantageous for oil and gas producers in North and South America. With Gulf suppliers facing reduced demand amid growing geopolitical risks, producers in the United States, Canada, and Latin America boosted output to fill the gap. Analysts suggest that this realignment could endure, particularly for Latin America’s mining sector, which stands to gain from heightened demand for critical minerals like copper and lithium as global electrification accelerates.

In the Persian Gulf, attacks involving drones and explosions have damaged critical energy infrastructure, including Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery and a key liquefied natural gas export terminal in Qatar. Rice University estimates that export losses across the Gulf averaged nearly $2 billion per day in March. Additionally, damages to energy facilities could total up to $58 billion, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy, raising concerns over repair costs and longer-term impacts on regional energy projects. Analysts caution that rising debt costs in the region may also slow progress on clean power initiatives.

Import-reliant nations such as Japan and South Korea have faced substantial increases in fuel costs, as they continue to depend heavily on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. African countries, many of which import refined petroleum products, have experienced worsening economic conditions due to soaring fuel prices. Ethiopia, for example, recently saw currency devaluations that compelled it to draw down billions in foreign exchange reserves to stabilize its currency.

Developing economies have borne the brunt of the price shock, with poorer countries spending an additional 1% of their GDP on energy costs—more than double the impact on wealthier countries, CREA reported. However, the crisis has accelerated renewables adoption across Africa and Asia. The African continent imported 37% more solar equipment from China in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year, extending from South Africa to Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Egypt.

Similar trends are evident in Asia. The Philippines saw a 262% year-over-year increase in Chinese solar equipment imports in March 2026 following fuel shortages that prompted a four-day workweek to conserve energy. Electric vehicle sales have surged as well, nearly doubling in the Philippines and Indonesia in mid-2026 compared to 2025, while India’s monthly passenger EV sales surpassed 30,000 units in June and July.

Global greenhouse gas emissions showed relative stability during the first half of 2026, increasing by only 0.2% compared to the previous year, according to Climate Trace. Slight declines in emissions from China and the United States were offset by increases in India and Brazil. Contrary to concerns that the energy disruptions would spur a surge in coal use, renewable energy capacity expanded more rapidly in the first six months of the year.

Analysts characterize these developments as a potentially positive turning point in the energy transition. However, they caution that the continuing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and geopolitical uncertainties make long-term projections challenging.