In eastern Belgium, a surplus of millions of metric tonnes of potatoes, primarily used for French fries, has led to unprecedented challenges for farmers and exporters. Kris D’haeyere, a potato farmer in Hermalle-sous-Huy, recently resorted to dumping over a thousand tonnes of unsold potatoes back into his fields after failing to sell them despite offering extremely low prices. This surplus, estimated at around 5 million metric tonnes across Europe, has driven the spot market price for potatoes in Belgium—the world’s largest exporter of frozen fries—to zero, a stark contrast to prices nearing 600 euros per tonne just three years ago.

The current glut has multiple causes. Favorable weather conditions produced the largest European potato harvest in nearly a decade, coinciding with difficulties in selling due to trade barriers and shifting market dynamics. U.S. tariffs implemented during the Trump administration have made European fries more expensive in America, the second-largest market after the U.K., contributing to an 8% decline in exports to the U.S. over the past year. Additionally, competition from emerging producers in China, India, and Egypt, offering frozen fries at lower prices, has intensified pressure on European suppliers.

The war in Iran has further complicated matters by disrupting energy and fertilizer supplies, pushing prices upwards. A blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has constrained fertilizer shipments and restricted exports to key markets in the Persian Gulf, such as Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. These countries have also seen reduced demand amid declining tourism and restaurant patronage. Rising inflation and shifting consumer behavior in Europe have similarly led to decreased dining out, where most fries are consumed, dampening domestic demand.

Industry representatives highlight the thin profit margins typical in potato production, exacerbated by Europe's stricter agricultural regulations compared to other regions. Some European farmers are at a disadvantage when competing with producers in countries where banned chemicals remain in use, making it difficult to maintain competitive pricing in international markets.

The broader sector is also contending with changing consumer preferences. In the United States, an increasing number of adults are using GLP-1 weight-loss medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy, which reduce appetite and the desire for processed and fried foods, including French fries and potato chips. While global demand for frozen fries continues to grow, its expansion has slowed to about 2.5% annually, down from 5% five years ago.

Farmers like D’haeyere have drastically reduced their planting areas for the next season, reflecting uncertainty about the future of the market. Others, like Jean-Pierre Van Puymbrouck, a farmer and trade group vice president in Walhain, remain cautiously optimistic but acknowledge the sector’s challenges. Van Puymbrouck, who benefits from multiyear contract pricing, notes that lower prices could eventually impact his business as well. The long-term viability of the potato farming industry remains uncertain as both supply surpluses and evolving consumer habits reshape the landscape of the world capital of French fries.