Roseline Rabouine was eight years old when British authorities forcibly removed her family from the Chagos Archipelago nearly six decades ago to make way for a joint British-American military base. Along with about 2,000 other islanders, she was sent on an eight-day journey to Mauritius and has not been permitted to return since.

Now 61 and living in Port Louis, Mauritius, Ms. Rabouine shares the hopes of many Chagossians for a return to their homeland. Earlier this year, Britain had planned to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands back to Mauritius following a ruling by the International Court of Justice, which found that Britain had not completed the decolonization of Mauritius. The proposed treaty includes provisions allowing the United States and Britain to maintain military operations on Diego Garcia, the largest atoll in the archipelago, under a 99-year lease.

However, the geopolitical landscape has complicated these plans. In February, the U.S. bombed Iran, after which President Donald Trump withdrew his support for the treaty, citing concerns over the strategic significance of Diego Garcia for American military presence in the Indian Ocean. The White House stated that Mr. Trump would “never allow the U.S. presence at Diego Garcia to be undermined or threatened for any reason."

Diego Garcia serves as a crucial hub for U.S. military operations, featuring long runways for large aircraft and a deep-sea port capable of supporting warships. Analysts express concern that transferring sovereignty to Mauritius could open the door for Chinese influence or military presence in the region. Some conservative British politicians have voiced similar worries, warning that removing British control could facilitate Chinese expansion into a strategically contested area.

Within Mauritius, opinions among Chagossian survivors about the islands’ future diverge. While some, such as Jeanine Sadrien, 69, urge full Mauritian sovereignty, others, including Ms. Rabouine, express reluctance given the discrimination and poverty faced by Chagossians in Mauritius since their displacement. Many survivors live in impoverished conditions, contrasting starkly with Mauritius’s reputation as a prosperous island nation known for luxury resorts.

Mauritian officials argue that Chagossians receive equal rights and benefits, including access to free healthcare and education. Plans for heritage visits to the islands have been postponed due to regional tensions following missile strikes by Iran toward Diego Garcia in March.

Diplomatic discussions continue but are complicated. The British Parliament must ratify the treaty before it can take effect, a process previously reliant on U.S. support. Mauritius’s foreign minister says assurances have been sought from the United States regarding continued base access, though U.S. State Department officials have refuted some of Mauritius’s characterizations of these talks.

Mauritius has indicated it may take further legal and diplomatic steps if the treaty is not ratified, including potential attempts to physically access the islands to prompt international scrutiny.

Meanwhile, the Chagossian community in Mauritius endeavors to preserve their cultural heritage through traditional music, dance, and cuisine, maintaining a connection to their ancestral home despite the ongoing political uncertainty.