Beijing is anticipated to press President Donald Trump during their meeting this week to maintain the postponement of a proposed $14 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, underscoring the ongoing tension surrounding the self-governed island’s security. China claims Taiwan as its territory and views U.S. arms sales as a critical issue that could destabilize relations between the two nuclear-armed powers.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has reportedly conveyed to Trump that mismanaging the Taiwan issue could be “extremely dangerous” for both countries. Experts emphasize that Taiwan remains the most sensitive subject in U.S.-China relations, with delays in arms sales seen as Beijing’s key demand to avoid escalation.

Since the May summit in Beijing, Trump has described the arms package—which includes missiles, anti-drone systems, and air defenses—as a bargaining tool in negotiations with China. The Trump administration has since refrained from approving the sale and has minimized public references to Taiwan, with officials such as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth notably avoiding direct mention of the island in recent remarks.

For China, the Trump administration’s delay already represents progress. In Washington, Xi is expected to signal potential consequences if the sale proceeds, such as imposing restrictions on rare earth mineral exports to the U.S. He may also hint at the possibility of skipping the upcoming Group of 20 summit in Miami, where Trump will serve as host. Meanwhile, Trump may seek Chinese backing to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global oil supplies that has been effectively blocked since the outbreak of conflict in the region earlier this year.

Taiwan faces political challenges amid the delay. President Lai Ching-te has advocated for increased defense spending and procurement of U.S. weaponry, partly in response to demands from the Trump administration that allies invest more in their military capabilities. Extended postponements could impede Taiwan’s ability to meet these objectives, potentially allowing China to advance its military gains faster than Taiwan can modernize its forces.

Analysts predict that approval of the arms sales could be deferred until late this year, though some suggest certain elements of the package might receive clearance sooner. Pressure from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers is expected to mount following the summit, urging the administration to move forward.

Taiwan’s efforts to engage with the Trump administration remain complicated by the absence of formal diplomatic ties and the highly personalized decision-making style of the U.S. president. Former U.S. officials note that this dynamic limits Taiwan’s ability to influence and understand policy developments related to its security.

During Trump’s first term, the U.S. approved approximately $18 billion in arms sales to Taiwan amid heightened concerns about China’s long-term threat. However, in his second term, Trump has shifted toward a more pragmatic approach to relations with Beijing, stepping back from trade hostilities after China imposed rare earth export restrictions that affect critical technologies.

Despite the diplomatic complexities, cooperation between U.S. and Taiwanese defense officials remains robust. American advisers were notably present during Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang military exercises, reflecting sustained engagement. Chen Ming-chi, Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister overseeing U.S. relations, affirmed the importance Washington places on continued arms sales for Taiwan’s defense capabilities.