In recent weeks, tensions between the United States, Iran, and Gulf countries have escalated amid conflicting strategic calculations and unresolved security concerns. The situation, marked by missile strikes, diplomatic shifts, and renewed confrontations, reflects a complex regional dynamic with no clear overarching plan from Washington.
The backdrop to the current crisis dates to February 28, when the United States and Israel reportedly carried out an operation targeting Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei. This move was met with caution and criticism from Gulf Arab states, which warned that military action would risk destabilizing the region and potentially close the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply transits. Saudi Arabia in particular has long cautioned the United States against engaging Iran militarily without a comprehensive strategy to ensure regime change in Tehran.
Despite these warnings, the U.S. and its allies initiated what has been described as “operation Epic Fury,” a series of missile strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s military capabilities without deploying ground forces. A senior Arab official indicated that there was no coordinated effort underway to topple the Iranian regime in the aftermath of these attacks, leaving regional partners exposed to Iranian retaliatory measures and what some view as U.S. missteps.
Proponents of the campaign argue that the military actions successfully weakened Iranian forces and opened a pathway for stronger diplomatic engagement. However, the signing last month of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran—which reportedly granted favorable terms to Tehran—has disappointed many Gulf states. These governments feel sidelined in the negotiation process and remain concerned about Iran’s continued ballistic missile programs and its network of proxy militias.
In response to the perceived lack of a coherent American strategy, Gulf countries have adjusted their policies. Saudi Arabia, for instance, seeks to maintain ties with U.S. leadership while limiting Washington’s unilateral military initiatives. Meanwhile, both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are exploring a détente with Iran, with the UAE also deepening security cooperation with Israel.
U.S. political figures offer divergent perspectives on the situation. Vice President JD Vance has reported engaging with senior Iranian officials, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, describing the discussions positively. Conversely, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reassured Gulf allies that the U.S. remains committed to resisting Iranian influence and protecting regional security.
Recent actions by Iran appear to reflect confidence in the face of U.S. policy ambiguities. Following Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump intensified rhetoric against Tehran, labeling its leaders “sick people,” revoking sanction waivers that had permitted Iranian oil sales, and authorizing a series of military strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure, including a key transportation route in northern Iran used for trade with China and Russia.
Trump declared an end to a de facto ceasefire, heightening tensions and angering Gulf states. The trajectory signals a potential for continued hostilities, which align with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stance. Netanyahu, who is seeking political survival ahead of October elections in Israel, appears to view sustained pressure on Iran as necessary, believing that the Iranian regime’s durability is not guaranteed.
While there is broad hesitation among actors in Washington, Tehran, and the Arab world about escalating to full-scale war, the region faces a precarious period of calibrated provocations. Analysts warn this volatile environment could lead to broader conflict in the months leading up to significant elections in both Israel and the United States.