The United Kingdom is experiencing an unprecedented summer marked by multiple heatwaves, setting new records for high temperatures and challenging existing weather predictions. Penny Endersby, chief executive of the Met Office since 2018 and the first woman to hold the position, described the recent months as “exceptional,” with May recording its hottest day on record, June becoming the warmest ever in England, and an extraordinary number of days exceeding 35 degrees Celsius.
Endersby, speaking from the Met Office headquarters near Exeter, highlighted the growing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events not only across Europe but globally. She noted that heat domes are affecting large regions including the United States and parts of Asia, contributing to soaring temperatures that have reached above 40 degrees Celsius in places like Japan and may threaten to hit 50 degrees Celsius in parts of Portugal and Spain this summer.
The Met Office operates a vast network of hundreds of weather stations and employs around 1,250 scientists, engineers, and meteorologists who process billions of data points daily to improve forecasting and monitor climate changes. Despite advances, the agency faces challenges both from the public and political spheres. Criticism has emerged regarding forecast accuracy, such as complaints from tourist sites over the use of simplified weather icons that can impact visitor numbers. Nonetheless, Endersby emphasized that the Met Office is independently evaluated and continually works to enhance both the accuracy of its forecasts and the quality of its warnings.
Endersby’s tenure has coincided with increasing political pushback against climate science and net zero emissions targets in countries including the UK and the US. While some politicians have dismissed climate concerns, Endersby maintained that the scientific evidence for climate change is unequivocal. She cited examples of resistance even within international bodies like the World Meteorological Organization but stressed that climate trends are governed by immutable physical laws. The Met Office collaborates with global institutions such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, NOAA in the US, and the Japan Meteorological Agency to provide comprehensive climate data.
The chief also addressed the role of artificial intelligence in weather prediction, noting that it offers promising advancements but presents unique challenges when used without traditional physics-based modelling. The Met Office is adopting a hybrid approach to leverage the strengths of both AI and numerical forecasting to improve efficiency and reliability.
Regarding adaptation, Endersby pointed to increased collaboration with sectors like finance and energy. She described encouraging engagement from regulators and financial markets in assessing climate risks, as well as efforts to integrate real-time weather data into power grid management. However, she warned that existing infrastructure, such as power lines, was originally designed for colder conditions and may be ill-prepared for extended periods of extreme heat.
On the subject of climate intervention methods, Endersby expressed caution about geoengineering techniques like solar radiation modification or cloud seeding, which some countries already use. While supporting scientific research to model these options, she argued that such measures should only be considered as last resorts due to their risks, including the potential for rapid climate rebound if halted. She stressed that the priority remains the large-scale deployment of proven renewable energy technologies to address the climate crisis.
The Met Office’s latest climate modelling suggests that by mid-century, the UK could experience extended periods of 40 degrees Celsius, with possible spikes to 45 degrees. These projections coincide with worsening effects from a strengthening El Niño event, which typically exacerbates droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves worldwide—a phenomenon some scientists warn could become a “super El Niño.”
Endersby reflected on the rapid changes already observed, such as a quadrupling in the number of hot days and warm nights in Greater London over recent decades. She recalled the Met Office’s forecast in 2022 of the UK’s first 40-degree temperature, describing the moment as both a professional vindication and a cause for concern.
Balancing the demands of her leadership role, Endersby recently returned to work following breast cancer treatment. She also serves as a canon scientist at Exeter Cathedral, aiming to bridge science and public understanding.
Summing up the outlook, Endersby remarked, “This feels like a very unusual summer. But there is not going to be a usual summer because we’re in such a rapidly changing climate.” She underlined the urgency of deploying existing technologies at scale to combat climate change, emphasizing that the solutions are known even as the window to act narrows.