As the 2024 election cycle intensifies, concerns about the influence of third-party candidates as potential spoilers have drawn renewed attention. Historically, third-party contenders have played pivotal roles in close races, and this year several campaigns show active investments by major party groups to sway outcomes through support of these candidates.
In Ohio, Libertarian Senate candidate Greg Levy has unexpectedly become a target of Republican-backed efforts. A recently formed super PAC linked to former President Donald Trump and Ohio Republican operatives has spent approximately $2.3 million on mail and text campaigns directed at Democratic voters, urging support for Levy. Levy, who opposes political donations and calls for money out of politics, expressed surprise at this outside assistance but maintains his principle stance against the influence of wealthy donors.
Republican interest in boosting Levy stems from a tight Senate race between incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Jon Husted. Despite the Senate contest drawing nearly $500 million in advertising to date, the funds spent promoting Levy remain relatively modest. Meanwhile, Ohio Democrats have also engaged in leveraging third-party dynamics by promoting Libertarian candidate Bill Redpath, highlighting his support for gun rights in efforts to attract Republican voters. Redpath did not respond to requests for comment, and Ohio Democratic officials declined to discuss these mailers.
Similar strategies have emerged in other states. In New Jersey, a candidate named Seamus O’Toole, who lists his party as “Stop Israel’s Genocide,” appears on the ballot in a congressional race with GOP incumbent Tom Kean Jr. O’Toole has remained largely unresponsive to media inquiries. In Virginia, independent candidate Matt Baker, a retired Marine branding himself a “radical centrist,” found his campaign messaging selectively highlighted by Republican-affiliated groups. A Republican super PAC emphasized his centrist stances on gun rights in mailers criticizing his Democratic opponent, former Representative Elaine Luria. Meanwhile, House Democrats encouraged outside groups to portray Baker as a strong supporter of the Second Amendment. Baker condemned these portrayals as misleading and unauthorized.
The complexity of polling third-party candidates compounds uncertainty, as including them in surveys can inflate their perceived support, while excluding them denies voters an opportunity to express genuine preferences. Nationally, third-party presidential candidates have drawn less than 2 percent of the vote in recent polling.
Funding for these third-party efforts often flows through so-called dark money groups that do not disclose donors before Election Day. For example, Our Heritage Matters, a nonprofit, has reported spending $340,000 to aid Libertarian candidates in Senate and House races in multiple states.
In Nevada, conservative independent Lynn Chapman, running again after capturing 5 percent of the vote in 2022, could be a determining factor in the competitive race to succeed retiring Republican Representative Mark Amodei. Chapman acknowledges that her support could enable the Democratic nominee, Teresa Benitez-Thompson, to prevail but has expressed a preference for Republican David Flippo to win.
As campaigns broaden their focus beyond traditional two-party contests, the role of third-party and independent candidates continues to draw strategic attention from both major parties, raising questions about voter influence and electoral outcomes in closely contested races.