In New Hampshire, a state that has rejected former President Donald Trump in three consecutive presidential elections, the closely watched Senate contest between Republican John E. Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is proving unexpectedly competitive, underscoring the complex political dynamics at play in the 2026 midterms.

Sununu, a former U.S. senator from the early 2000s and member of a well-known political family, is vying to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Despite the state’s general disapproval of Trump—recent polls show his approval rating at just 33 percent in New Hampshire—Sununu has maintained Trump’s endorsement while distancing himself from some of the former president’s more controversial policies, such as tariffs on Canada and the conflict in Iran. His campaign benefits from significant financial backing by Republicans, as well as the presence of popular Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte on the ballot, who is favored to win reelection.

Polling in the state has shown a fluctuating picture. Recent surveys from the University of New Hampshire and the New York Times/Siena University indicate leads for Pappas by eight and five points respectively. However, other polls have shown Sununu in the lead or tied, prompting the nonpartisan Cook Political Report to adjust the race rating from “Lean Democratic” to a “Toss Up.” This volatility highlights the state’s reputation for political independence and suggests the outcome may hinge on managing local issues and voter perceptions of the candidates rather than national trends alone.

Sununu, 62, has largely kept the race focused on state concerns and avoided frequent national media appearances. While he accepted Trump’s endorsement to secure the Republican nomination easily in September, the most prominent backer no longer appears on his campaign website. He has openly criticized Trump’s approach to the war in Iran and Canada tariffs, and has emphasized his intent to restore congressional authority independent of the executive branch. Nonetheless, Sununu’s critics argue that his voting record aligns with Trump’s agenda, pointing to his support for legislation like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which cut social services to fund tax reductions favoring higher-income groups.

Pappas, 46, emphasizes his independence from strict party control, citing past instances where he challenged the Biden administration, particularly on immigration policy. Yet, he generally aligns with Democratic priorities and has built a comparatively low-profile campaign marked by grassroots events across the state. If elected, he would become the first openly gay male senator in history. Many voters voicing support for him do so less out of personal admiration and more from opposition to Trump and a desire for Democratic control of the Senate.

Voters interviewed across Merrimack, Hillsborough, and Rockingham counties reflected skepticism about Sununu’s independence. Several expressed the view that he would consistently support Trump’s platform if elected, reinforcing the notion of the race as a referendum on the former president’s influence. Meanwhile, Sununu benefits from strong name recognition linked to his family, including his brother Chris Sununu, the recently departed New Hampshire governor, and their father, John H. Sununu, a former state leader. Some voters confuse John E. Sununu with his brother Chris, a factor that both candidates acknowledge and that may influence voter behavior in a close race.

The election carries national significance as Democrats seek to regain the Senate majority, currently held by Republicans 53 to 47. Holding New Hampshire is vital for Democrats’ path to flipping the chamber, while Republicans see Sununu as a key figure to maintain their control. With both campaigns navigating a politically independent electorate in a Trump-averse state, the outcome remains uncertain as the November election approaches.