Millions of Brazilians voted in a presidential election that has resulted in a decisive showing for the far right, marking the most substantial conservative victory since the end of the country’s military dictatorship in 1985. The first round, held on October 8, saw Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, emerge as the frontrunner against the incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, widely known as Lula. Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47 percent of the vote compared to Lula’s 45 percent, with Bolsonaro’s allies also gaining a Senate majority. The two candidates will face off in a runoff scheduled for October 25.

The election pits Lula, an 80-year-old social democrat who oversees a period of economic recovery and reduced poverty, against Flávio Bolsonaro, who is under criminal investigation for corruption. Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence related to his role in a failed coup attempt in 2022. A potential Bolsonaro victory may lead to efforts to pardon the former president and grant amnesty to participants in the January 8, 2023, riot at Brazil’s capital, Brasília.

Various factors contribute to the far right’s renewed strength in Brazil, including widespread economic dissatisfaction, cultural backlash, deep political polarization, and the weakening of democratic institutions. Lula and his supporters have also pointed to foreign interference, citing policies from the Trump administration intended to benefit Bolsonaro’s camp, such as tariffs, visa restrictions, and financial support to groups opposing Brazil’s Supreme Court.

While Brazil has historically been seen as a progressive democratic model in Latin America, with Lula’s previous terms from 2003 to 2011 marked by significant social gains among marginalized communities, recent developments reveal a more complex picture of civic engagement. Despite record-low poverty and unemployment under Lula’s current administration, public trust in institutions like the Supreme Court has eroded amid corruption scandals. The court’s conviction of Jair Bolsonaro is viewed by some as evidence of democratic resilience, but it alone cannot safeguard democratic norms.

Political mobilization in Brazil has shifted dramatically over the past decade. Traditional mechanisms of left-wing grassroots organizing, including unions and mass parties, have diminished, weakening Lula’s base among low-income voters. Meanwhile, the right has expanded through diverse and informal networks including evangelical churches, conservative think tanks, and online platforms. Evangelical Christianity, particularly Pentecostalism, has become a significant political force, with the share of evangelical Brazilians growing from 9 percent in 1991 to 27 percent in 2022. Many congregants vote according to moral and religious cues provided by pastors, rather than material concerns.

This transformation in civic participation has allowed right-wing groups to cultivate a dedicated and active constituency, while left-leaning grassroots organizations have lost ground. The right’s success in Sunday’s vote reflects this trend, as more Brazilians now identify as right-leaning than at any time since 2014.

Lula’s path to victory in the upcoming runoff depends largely on mobilizing the more than 33 million registered voters who abstained in the first round—a feat complicated by the decline in neighborhood-based political organization within his party. Analysts warn that this weak foundation of participatory democracy may leave Brazil vulnerable to further authoritarian tendencies, whichever candidate wins the election. The erosion of democratic engagement structures and the rise of politically motivated religious and online networks underscore ongoing challenges to Brazil’s democratic stability.