Three women who have worked in public service roles helping vulnerable populations say they now face renewed fear and uncertainty following the government’s recent implementation of an early prisoner release scheme aimed at reducing overcrowding. The controversial policy, known as the Progression Model, began this week with around 700 inmates released early, with approximately 3,800 more prisoners set to leave in stages through next June. Domestic abusers and stalkers remain eligible for early release under the scheme, despite widespread concerns among victims and advocacy groups.

Helen Duncanson, 41, an ambulance worker from near York, described enduring severe physical and psychological abuse at the hands of her former partner, Michael Boyes, who had 20 previous convictions before his January sentencing for assault and coercive behavior. Boyes was sentenced to three and a half years in prison but may be released as early as March after serving roughly 14 months. Helen recounted multiple instances of violence, including a night when he strangled her until she lost consciousness, and ongoing manipulation targeting painful memories of her late mother. A restraining order has been issued, but Helen expressed deep anxiety about her safety once he is freed.

Kirsty Pellant, 46, a former school safeguarding leader based in Kent, lost her career due to a campaign of identity theft and stalking by Jonathan Bates, a former teacher and ex-paratrooper. Bates was sentenced in January 2025 to five years imprisonment but could be released early as soon as this January. Kirsty continues to suffer reputational damage and ongoing harassment online, and she voiced skepticism about the government’s assurances that offenders will be closely supervised and recalled to prison if conditions are breached. She questioned the effectiveness of electronic monitoring in cases of online abuse.

Primary school teacher Karen Haynes, 54, endured nearly 30 years of coercive control and abuse by her ex-husband, Christopher Haynes, a former headteacher sentenced to 21 months in prison after a protracted legal process. Despite evidence of escalating threats, including death threats and an armed police intervention on Christmas Day, he is now eligible for release next month. Karen described the enduring impact on her mental health, including a suicide attempt, and has decided to relocate abroad with her children, changing her identity out of concerns for their safety.

The introduction of the Progression Model prompted public backlash after reports indicated that some violent offenders would be freed early. Following protests, Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced that individuals convicted of rape, sexual offenses, and unlawful killing are excluded, but the scheme continues to apply to domestic abusers and stalkers. Victims and domestic violence charities argue the policy fails to adequately protect survivors, stressing that the risk of harm remains significant once perpetrators return to the community.

Organizations such as Women’s Aid report widespread fear among survivors, with nearly 79% of victim support services noting concerns about children’s safety. Refuge’s chief, Alice Russell-Harris, has called for a pause on releasing abusers early until sufficient safeguarding measures and victim support services are in place. The government has pledged increased victim support, enhanced probation resources, and intensive supervision for released offenders, including electronic monitoring and exclusion zones, but critics say current provisions are insufficient.

Victims like Helen, Kirsty, and Karen describe a lack of clear communication and support from probation services, with uncertainty over release dates and supervision conditions adding to their distress. They also express doubt about government capacity to effectively monitor offenders, particularly those who committed crimes online. The women expressed frustration over what they perceive as a failure to prioritize their safety in the face of a broader prison capacity crisis.

While authorities continue to grapple with prison overcrowding, many survivors contend that the burden of managing risk has been unfairly shifted onto victims, leaving them vulnerable and questioning the justice system’s ability to protect them. Their experiences highlight ongoing challenges in balancing offender management with survivor safety amid evolving criminal justice policies.