Republican candidates in Iowa’s tightly contested races for governor and U.S. Senate are facing unexpected challenges, according to a recent Suffolk University poll conducted from August 20 to 23. The findings reflect growing voter dissatisfaction with former President Donald Trump, who won the state by a significant margin in 2024 but now faces declining favorability.
In the gubernatorial race, Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand holds a narrow lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn, with 48% to 44%. Meanwhile, in the Senate contest, Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson leads Democratic state Representative Josh Turek by four points, 45% to 41%. The poll surveyed 500 likely voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, highlighted the unusual competitiveness in a state Trump had carried by more than 13 points just two years ago. The last Democratic governor was elected in Iowa 20 years ago, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat there in 18 years.
Voter motivation underscores dissatisfaction with the national political environment. Thirty percent of respondents said their primary reason for voting in the midterm elections is to "express dissatisfaction with the current national political climate," outweighing voters backing a specific candidate’s vision (11%) or focusing on local ballot issues (16%). Approximately 40% cited fulfilling their civic duty as their main motivation.
Sand’s lead in the governor’s race is bolstered by strong Democratic support, a substantial advantage among independents (53% to 34%), and even some Republican crossover, with 9% backing him. In contrast, Lahn has secured no support from Democrats. In the Senate contest, Turek enjoys near-unanimous support from Democrats and leads among independents (39% to 35%), along with 5% of Republicans. Hinson receives minimal Democratic backing, with only one Democratic respondent indicating support.
Among 2024 Trump voters who are not supporting Hinson, many cited a belief that Republicans have “gotten off track” and have “not delivered” on promises. Among voters identified as very likely to participate in the election, Hinson and Turek are tied at 45% each.
The Iowa races have attracted attention as potential opportunities for Democrats to regain control of the Senate. Achieving this would require Democrats to hold all current seats and flip four Republican-held seats, making competitive races like Iowa’s increasingly important.
Despite these signs of competitiveness, Iowa remains a solidly Republican state. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 200,000 voters, and Republicans hold all six U.S. House seats, both chambers of the state legislature, and every statewide office except one. Neither Republican Sen. Joni Ernst nor Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds is seeking reelection, contributing to the open-seat contests.
Economic concerns are prominently influencing voter sentiment. Iowa’s agricultural sector has been impacted by trade disputes, rising gas and fertilizer costs, while national issues such as affordability of groceries, housing, and health care resonate with many voters.
Although Trump dominated the state in 2024 against Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, his current favorability rating in Iowa slightly trails his unfavorable rating, with 48% viewing him favorably and 49% unfavorably. Notably, 10% of Republicans and a majority of independents (51% to 42%) hold unfavorable views of Trump, adding a complex dynamic to the upcoming midterms.