Tigrayan rebels in northern Ethiopia have launched a large-scale offensive, seizing control of multiple regional airports and escalating tensions that raise concerns about the potential resurgence of civil war. The fighting, which unfolded on Wednesday, involved government forces clashing with the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the Afar and Amhara regions, according to Ethiopian government officials.

Getachew Reda, an adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who hails from Tigray, stated on social media platform X that the TPLF had initiated an “all-out offensive” against federal military positions. The rebels’ capture of several federally controlled airports led to the suspension of flights in the affected areas. Reda described the offensive as taking place despite efforts by both domestic and international actors to prevent another round of violence.

The TPLF, which governs the northern Tigray region, countered government claims by accusing federal forces of provoking the conflict through artillery, drone, and airstrikes earlier in the week. The group described their actions as defensive, aiming to “counter the attack” in response to what they termed a “genocidal invasion.”

The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018, a period marked by rapid economic growth under the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. However, following Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power, the TPLF was marginalized, contributing to longstanding political divisions. The previous civil war in Ethiopia, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths, according to the African Union, and was characterized by widespread atrocities.

In recent months, observers, including regional officials and Western diplomats, have expressed concern that violations of the 2022 peace agreement between the government and the TPLF increased the risk of renewed hostilities. Diplomatic efforts to contain the crisis have been hampered by competing interests from neighboring states and Gulf countries, which have strategic stakes in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor.

One major fear is that the renewed conflict could expand into a broader regional war involving Eritrea. Eritrea aligned with the Ethiopian federal government in the previous conflict but is now accused by some of supporting the TPLF—a charge denied by Eritrean authorities.

Ethiopia continues to grapple with internal divisions among its diverse regions amid its position as one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Prior to the recent outbreak of fighting, the TPLF formed a coalition with six other armed groups from Ethiopia’s Amhara, Afar, and Oromia regions, united with the goal of challenging Abiy’s government in Addis Ababa.

Edward Bach, a senior Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, noted that the TPLF’s offensive significantly raises the likelihood of a full-scale conflict and may offer justification for the federal government to intensify drone strikes. The evolving situation remains fluid, with potential implications for stability across the Horn of Africa.