Former UK Defence Minister Tobias Ellwood has issued a stark warning about the risk of global conflict escalating into a prolonged and multifaceted World War Three as early as 2040. In his forthcoming book, *Ten Steps to Prevent World War Three*, Ellwood outlines a future characterized by nuclear detonations, persistent regional wars, widespread climate displacement, and a fragmented global order.
Drawing parallels with the prelude to the Second World War in 1937, Ellwood highlights contemporary dangers that include nuclear weapons, climate change, cyber warfare, economic coercion, and powerful non-state actors. He warns that the current international environment is marked by increasing tensions, deteriorating alliances, and a weakening of institutions like NATO and the United Nations. The former Conservative MP argues that the global order is unraveling amid rising populism, isolationism, and the erosion of coordinated international responses to crises such as pandemics.
Ellwood, who served as a minister under former Prime Minister Theresa May and chaired the House of Commons Defence Select Committee, describes a scenario in which Moscow’s use of a nuclear weapon near the strategic Ukrainian port of Odessa catalyzes ongoing instability. He envisions a world where conflicts are largely proxy-based, with cyberattacks, space skirmishes, and economic pressure forming the new normal.
The former minister also comments on the shifting geopolitical landscape, noting the United States’ gradual withdrawal to focus on its own hemisphere while China expands its influence through advanced technologies such as quantum computing and cyber capabilities. Ellwood expresses concern over the current American administration’s stance, suggesting that former President Donald Trump’s "America First" approach undermines the existing global order and risks territorial ambitions, including the controversial notion of annexing Greenland.
Ellwood traces his sense of urgency back to personal tragedy, when he identified the body of his brother, a teacher killed in a 2002 terrorist bombing in Bali. This experience underscored for him the rising threats posed by ideological extremism and the failure of governments to coordinate preventative measures.
Among the ten recommendations he proposes, Ellwood emphasizes the need to learn from history, improve global cooperation, and upgrade military readiness to meet modern threats that bypass traditional battlefields. He calls for a frank national conversation in the UK about defence spending, recommending increased budgets potentially funded by targeted tax measures, alongside the possibility of introducing national service programs similar to those in some Scandinavian countries, covering emergency response, cyber defence, and infrastructure security.
Ellwood warns that the absence of decisive leadership and firm commitment to international collaboration risks driving the world toward a new era of relentless conflict. He advocates for middle powers to step up diplomatic efforts, pursue institutional reforms, and create initiatives akin to a 21st-century Marshall Plan focused on energy security. He also stresses the necessity of a western technological push, including a quantum computing project to counter China’s advancements.
Despite the grim outlook, Ellwood acknowledges global progress in areas like poverty reduction and healthcare improvements. Nevertheless, he cautions that without significant action and cooperation, humanity could face a future defined by continuous confrontation and widespread devastation.
*Ten Steps to Prevent World War Three* is set for publication on July 9.