Senior members of the UK Cabinet have indicated they will remain in their posts regardless of the outcome of the Makerfield by-election, where Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor, is standing as the Labour candidate. Key ministers, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, and Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander, have reportedly dismissed speculation about their potential resignations should Burnham secure victory.

As results were expected early on Sunday, Burnham was anticipated to advocate privately for a clear timetable for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down if he won. However, with Starmer publicly determined to resist any leadership challenge, speculation has grown about the possibility of coordinated ministerial resignations, reminiscent of the events that led to Boris Johnson’s departure in 2022.

Among those closely observed is Ed Miliband, who is considered an ally of Burnham and has been mentioned as a prospective chancellor should Burnham assume leadership. Despite reports of concern within Downing Street about the Energy Secretary’s potential resignation, Miliband’s office stated he had no intention of stepping down.

Similarly, Mahmood, who is also viewed as a leading candidate for the role of Home Secretary in a Burnham administration, is reportedly committed to fulfilling her current responsibilities. A source close to her reiterated that she has no plans to resign. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is said to be “cracking on” with her duties and intends to remain in office.

Despite these assurances, there remains an expectation that resignations could occur if Burnham ultimately prevails, especially if Starmer demands public declarations of loyalty from his ministers. One government insider described such resignations as “the next logical step for those who don’t think the PM should continue.”

Within the parliamentary Labour Party, tension is mounting as members may soon face significant pressure to publicly support either Starmer or one of his challengers, including Burnham and Wes Streeting. An MP noted that endorsements might be used by parliamentarians to enhance their prospects for ministerial positions under a future leadership.

However, all political calculations depend on Burnham winning the seat. Polling throughout the campaign indicated that the result was uncertain, with Labour’s overall national polling weak and the constituency otherwise leaning toward the Reform Party, led by Robert Kenyon. Success for Burnham would signify a challenge to Nigel Farage’s advancing influence in UK politics.

Polls showed a narrow margin between Burnham and Kenyon, with some attention focused on the Restore Party candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, who was polling at up to 8 percent. Analysts suggest that Shepherd’s share of the vote could affect the election dynamics, possibly splitting the vote and enabling Burnham to triumph.