Toronto’s population decline over the past year has led to rising rental vacancies, a deteriorating condominium market, and heightened concerns about the city’s fiscal outlook, according to recent research by Toronto Metropolitan University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development. The analysis places Toronto near the bottom of growth rankings among 435 metropolitan areas in Canada and the United States, a steep fall from its top position just one year earlier.
Statistics Canada data released earlier this year revealed that the population of the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area, which includes the city proper and surrounding municipalities, decreased by approximately 1,000 residents in the 12 months preceding July 1, 2025. This marks the first recorded population decline outside the pandemic period, reversing a substantial gain of nearly 270,000 people the previous year.
The new ranking by Toronto Metropolitan University researchers, led by senior economist Diana Petramala and senior research fellow Frank Clayton, shows Toronto slipping to 412th among North American metropolitan areas in terms of growth. Within Canada, only Calgary and Edmonton appeared in the top 10 fastest-growing cities. The slowdown in population growth is reflective of a broader trend observed in other major Canadian urban centers compared to 2024.
While the reduction in population growth partly stems from tightened federal policies restricting temporary foreign workers and international students, this factor alone does not fully account for Toronto’s decline. The study highlights that Toronto still recorded one of the highest net international migration gains among fast-growing cities, welcoming about 53,000 new residents from abroad. However, this figure represents an 84 percent drop from the previous year.
More significant is the continuing outflow of residents to other parts of Ontario and Canada. In 2025, Toronto experienced a net domestic migration loss of approximately 77,500 people, largely attributed to rising housing costs that have increasingly priced residents out of the city. The researchers point to this exodus as a key driver behind Toronto’s demographic shift and sliding position in growth rankings.
“The city’s rank among other North American cities reflects sharp trends in out-migration of its existing population,” Petramala and Clayton noted. “Increasingly unaffordable housing appears to be pushing many residents to other parts of Canada.”
The population decline not only affects Toronto’s housing market but also raises concerns about its economic future. Higher rental vacancies and a faltering condo sector are expected to put additional strain on city finances as it navigates these demographic and market changes.