International trade continues to play a crucial role in fostering economic growth, strengthening ties between countries, and reducing the likelihood of conflict, despite growing geopolitical tensions and protectionist measures, according to a maritime and trade expert.
Peter Tirschwell, vice-president for maritime and trade at S&P Global Market Intelligence, highlighted these points during the centennial celebrations of World Trade Week held last week in Los Angeles. Tirschwell emphasized the enduring importance of global commerce in an era marked by rising tariffs, geopolitical rivalries, and disruptions to supply chains.
“We believe firmly in the value of trade to expand markets, create opportunities, create interdependencies and thus bring countries and societies together,” Tirschwell said. He noted that countries engaged in trade tend to be less prone to conflict.
Tirschwell, who also served as editor-in-chief of the Journal of Commerce, underscored that the publication has championed the benefits of trade since its inception in 1827. He pointed to historical examples such as the European Union’s post-World War II integration, which helped promote stability and cooperation across nations. Additionally, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach serve as economic anchors, forming the largest container gateway in the Western Hemisphere and supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs in Southern California and beyond.
Despite these positive aspects, Tirschwell acknowledged that the current climate differs markedly from the global consensus that followed the establishment of the World Trade Organization in 1995. He observed that governments now take more active roles in directing trade flows through tariffs and industrial policies driven by strategic and geopolitical interests. For instance, the United States imposed the so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025, which levied additional duties on imports from various trading partners and have introduced uncertainty for businesses and supply chains. These measures have sparked legal challenges and triggered debate over the future trajectory of U.S. trade policy.
The expert also pointed to shifting trade patterns, citing a McKinsey & Company study predicting that up to one-third of global trade could move to new corridors within the next decade. Early evidence includes a 5 percent increase in global container volumes in the first quarter of 2026 contrasted with a 5 percent decline in United States containerized imports during the same period, suggesting that trade routes may increasingly bypass the U.S. over time.
Additional risks to global shipping routes were highlighted, including ongoing security concerns affecting traffic through the Suez Canal and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, both critical chokepoints for international logistics. Tirschwell warned that freedom of navigation “is now under threat in ways that it has not been for decades,” contributing to what he described as a "permanent state of disruption" that necessitates new strategies in supply chain management and investment.
Looking ahead, Tirschwell expressed cautious optimism about the future of international trade. He noted that emerging regions, particularly in Africa, are expected to outpace the economic growth of the U.S. in coming decades and are increasingly attracting the attention of shipping lines, freight forwarders, and logistics providers. Investments in ports, airports, and logistics infrastructure underscore sustained confidence in the resilience of global commerce and economic connectivity, even as the trading environment becomes more complex.