When U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea a year ago, they reached a trade truce aimed at stabilizing a strained economic relationship marked by tariffs and restrictions. The agreement entailed halting new tariff hikes and promoting dialogue on key issues such as trade enforcement, intellectual property, and critical mineral exports, which are essential for industries like automotive and semiconductor manufacturing.

As Mr. Xi prepares to visit Washington this week to meet with Mr. Trump, both sides are signaling an intent to maintain this fragile truce amid ongoing tensions. U.S. officials have indicated that discussions will focus on establishing a dialogue on artificial intelligence, advancing trade in non-sensitive goods such as energy and consumer products, and reviewing China's commitments to supplying critical minerals. However, the agreement remains delicate, with both countries accusing each other of violating various provisions.

From the U.S. perspective, China has yet to fully meet its promises, particularly in resuming steady exports of minerals important to American industries and in purchasing farm goods and Boeing aircraft at the levels previously agreed. American officials have also expressed concerns over Chinese subsidies for domestic firms, restrictions on U.S. companies’ data and legal protections inside China, and increased regulatory controls Beijing has imposed on foreign companies operating there. These include new decrees expanding government authority over global firms, limiting auditing of supply chains—especially with regard to forced labor laws—and tightening oversight of outbound investments and mineral exports.

Conversely, China accuses the United States of unfairly restricting its technology companies and imposing investment barriers, noting that recent U.S. bans on Chinese technology and additions of Chinese firms to trade blacklists exacerbate tensions. Beijing has responded with sanctions on U.S. companies involved in supply chain verification, particularly those related to concerns over forced labor in Xinjiang, placing firms in a difficult position as compliance with U.S. law could jeopardize their access to the Chinese market.

Officials acknowledge that while the leaders have maintained a relatively positive rapport at the top level, underlying frictions persist. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who leads trade negotiations, described the relationship as a "water polo match," with cooperative exchanges above water but competitive "kicking" beneath. Analysts note that the South Korea deal functions more as an agreement to avoid escalation rather than a resolution of fundamental disputes, allowing both sides tactical flexibility to test boundaries without derailing overall progress.

Both governments are expected to pursue positive outcomes during Xi’s visit, potentially advancing efforts to establish a "board of trade" aimed at reducing tariffs on $30 billion of goods on each side and discussing enforcement mechanisms. Other topics likely to arise include artificial intelligence safety protocols and China’s role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis.

While the current truce formally expires at the end of November, officials have suggested there is no immediate rush to extend it, with the summit possibly serving as groundwork for a future agreement. U.S. trade experts caution that the continuation and duration of the truce may hinge significantly on China’s performance in delivering on critical mineral commitments and other pledges. Meanwhile, analysts highlight the ongoing risk that missteps or miscalculations could cause the delicate arrangement to unravel in the months ahead.