President Donald Trump has publicly attributed the recent global diesel shortage to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to halt such strikes. Speaking on Sunday from his golf course in Doonbeg, Ireland, Trump argued that these attacks were directly causing a reduction in diesel supply and contributing to soaring fuel prices worldwide. He called on Zelensky to focus on other targets but to spare diesel facilities.
Trump’s comments came shortly after Ukrainian forces confirmed attacks on oil refineries located in Russian territory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had similarly pointed to Ukrainian actions as a factor driving up energy prices, alongside the persisting conflict in Iran.
However, energy experts and analysts emphasize that the war involving Iran has played a more significant role in the current energy market turmoil. Since the United States and Israel targeted Iran on February 28, diesel prices in the United States have surged by approximately 66 percent, reaching record highs above $6.20 per gallon recently. Gasoline prices have risen as well, increasing around 45 percent during the same period. The global price of crude oil, a key input for all refined fuels, has also increased about 50 percent.
Helima Croft, an energy analyst at RBC Capital Markets, noted that the combination of two simultaneous conflicts—in Ukraine and the Middle East—has strained the global energy supply. While Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries limit Russia’s ability to export diesel and other refined products, they are not seen as the sole or primary driver behind the global price increases.
Russian officials have acknowledged the complexity of the situation. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov stressed that worsening market conditions largely stem from instability and escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf region. Peskov welcomed Trump’s call for Ukraine to cease attacks on energy infrastructure.
Amid these developments, Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to suspend strikes on each other’s energy facilities, though Ukraine did not confirm such an arrangement. President Zelensky indicated that any halt to strikes would depend on Russia refraining from attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including electricity, energy installations, and food supply routes.
Compounding the supply crunch, Russia’s diesel exports have fallen by about 90 percent since the start of the year, and Middle Eastern exports have also declined roughly 75 percent, according to data compiled by investment firm Pickering Energy Partners. Previously, Russia exported close to one million barrels of diesel daily, while Middle Eastern countries shipped around 1.5 million barrels.
Additional pressure on energy markets emerged after Saudi Arabia shut down a major pipeline transporting oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, following drone attacks launched from Iraq. The closure forced reliance on alternative routes amid ongoing threats from the Houthi militia and Iran’s effective control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts such as Daniel Evans from S&P Global Energy warn that the intersecting conflicts, along with China’s suspension of oil and diesel exports, have stretched the global refining system to its limits. The duration and extent of refinery damage in Russia remain uncertain, potentially delaying any rapid restoration of diesel supplies even if hostilities subside.
The International Energy Agency has underscored the urgency of progress toward resolving both conflicts, emphasizing the need to avoid further tightening of energy markets and widespread demand destruction.