With three weeks remaining before the U.S. midterm elections, President Donald Trump made a campaign stop in Wasilla, Alaska, on October 13, aiming to energize his conservative base in a state where rising energy costs and the war in the Middle East have shifted voter sentiment. Alaska, traditionally a Republican stronghold, faces a competitive Senate race that could swing in favor of Democrats amid growing dissatisfaction with the cost of living.

Polls indicate a tight contest between incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, a former U.S. House representative and the first Alaska native woman elected to Congress. Some surveys show Peltola holding a slight lead or tied with Sullivan, despite Trump winning the state by approximately 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.

Alaska’s energy prices have surged amid global instability, hitting residents particularly hard due to the state’s reliance on heating oil during its harsh winters and the logistical challenges of transporting goods across vast distances. Diesel and petrol costs have risen significantly, fueling voter concern and discontent with the current administration’s handling of energy and foreign policy.

At the rally in Wasilla, a conservative town north of Anchorage, Trump acknowledged these challenges while emphasizing his administration’s achievements for Alaska. He cited efforts to attract Asian investment in a pipeline project, funding new power lines, and expanding high-speed internet access. Addressing Middle East tensions, Trump vowed the Iran conflict “will end very soon” and that energy prices would consequently fall.

Sullivan, who spoke alongside Trump, described the conflict in the Middle East as temporary and criticized Democrats for opposing Alaska’s oil and gas industries, framing the race as a choice between supporting local jobs or national Democratic policies he characterized as harmful to the state’s energy sector.

The decision to campaign in a conservative stronghold fits a broader Republican strategy to mobilize loyal voters, even as President Trump’s approval ratings remain low nationally, partly due to the unpopular Iran war and economic pressures. Analysts suggest targeting Trump's base in reliably Republican areas may be an effort to secure turnout rather than courting moderates and independents, many of whom have grown disillusioned with the former president.

Locally, voter reactions at the rally reflected mixed feelings. Lance Million, a lifelong Republican from Wasilla, expressed frustration at the continued conflict in Iran but remained committed to voting for Sullivan, citing a lack of alternatives. “I’m a Republican, a staunch Republican,” he said, despite disappointment with the pace of resolving the war.

Meanwhile, some Alaskans voiced broader concerns about energy costs affecting everyday life. Suzanne Downing, former communications director of the Alaska Republican Party, highlighted that high fuel prices are dampening voter enthusiasm, particularly among men in rural areas who traditionally support Republicans but feel “let down.”

Peltola has presented herself as a pragmatic candidate focused on bipartisan cooperation and local priorities, including fisheries, while supporting responsible oil and gas development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Though she lost her 2024 House seat, her Senate bid capitalizes on shifting voter dynamics amid economic pressures.

As November 3 approaches, Alaska remains a key battleground with control of Congress potentially at stake. Republicans risk losing one or both chambers, which would constrain President Trump’s legislative agenda for the remainder of his term. In a state where energy prices directly affect daily life, the outcome may hinge on which candidate voters believe can best address immediate economic concerns alongside broader national issues.