As trade negotiations between the United States and Canada showed signs of faltering in late August, former President Donald Trump publicly declared that the U.S. does not need Canada, stating on Truth Social, “WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US!” However, the reality of North American trade relationships, particularly concerning critical minerals, presents a more complex picture.

Canada is the largest foreign supplier of minerals to the United States, providing nearly $47 billion worth annually. Key among these materials is aluminum, with Canada accounting for 60% of U.S. imports. The metal plays a vital role in modern military and aerospace applications; for instance, the airframe of the Pentagon’s F-35 fighter jet comprises about 40% aluminum. The abundant hydroelectric power available in Canada supports large-scale, low-carbon aluminum production, which the U.S. military heavily depends on.

This reliance on Canadian metals partly explains why recent U.S. tariffs imposed on Canadian goods specifically excluded most metals. Despite this exemption, Canadian officials have hinted at the potential use of mineral exports as leverage amid escalating trade tensions. Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned that his province might halt nickel exports to the U.S. if relations deteriorate further. Nickel is critical for steel alloys used in jet engines, armor plating for military vehicles, and various industrial applications. The U.S. sources roughly half of its nickel from Canada, as domestic nickel production is limited and refineries are absent, necessitating that the lone U.S. nickel mine ships ore to Canada for processing before reimportation.

In addition, British Columbia’s premier suggested the possibility of restricting exports of germanium, a mineral essential to military technology such as night-vision goggles and laser rangefinders, as well as to solar panels and fiber optics. This prospect would complicate supply chains at a time when China, the world’s largest producer of germanium, has significantly curtailed its exports to the U.S.

China has also limited exports of gallium, another critical mineral used in advanced computer chips that power missile defense and radar systems. The U.S. currently lacks domestic gallium production, though a new Canadian gallium refinery is planned to open next year, potentially reinforcing North American supply chains.

Beyond military applications, Canada supplies much of the uranium used in U.S. nuclear reactors, which generate about 20% of American electricity. Canadian potash, crucial for fertilizer, accounts for nearly 90% of that used by U.S. farmers, highlighting Canada’s role in supporting the agricultural sector as well.

While the U.S. has its own deposits of many critical metals and is pursuing domestic production expansions, development faces lengthy regulatory hurdles and higher costs compared to foreign sources. Other international suppliers exist, but shifting away from Canada would require dismantling deeply integrated supply networks that support numerous U.S. jobs. Moreover, alternative sources are limited or problematic. For example, Russia is the second-largest potash supplier, while China dominates global production of many critical minerals but restricts exports to the U.S., prompting Washington to seek supply chains independent of Beijing’s control.

The nuanced interdependence between the United States and Canada on mineral resources appears to have influenced recent trade policies. Though tariffs have been threatened in the past, particularly under Trump’s administration, U.S. exemptions for Canadian metals signal recognition of the strategic importance of this partnership. Canadian authorities, however, remain aware that minerals could become a potent bargaining tool in escalating disputes, as demonstrated by China’s previous export restrictions on rare earth elements during trade confrontations with the U.S.

Ontario’s Premier Ford recently underscored this possibility, stating that “Everything’s on the table,” signaling that mineral exports might be employed as leverage should tensions between the two neighbors intensify further.