Sioux City, Iowa — President Donald Trump sought to reassure farmers and rural voters in northwest Iowa on Thursday night that rising costs related to fuel, fertilizer, and equipment will soon ease, promising economic relief ahead of the November midterm elections. Speaking to a packed crowd in an airplane hangar, Trump predicted a swift end to conflict with Iran, which he said would trigger a significant drop in gasoline and oil prices.
The president emphasized his administration’s support for the agriculture sector, highlighting measures he said have benefited farmers despite widespread concerns over high energy costs. “We love our farmers,” Trump declared during his hour-and-a-half speech, which came less than two weeks before the midterms. His visit is part of a campaign tour through several states known for their strong Republican leanings, including Texas, Nebraska, and Kansas.
Iowa’s rural counties, which have heavily supported Trump in all his presidential campaigns, remain a Republican stronghold. More than 77% of the country’s most farming-dependent counties voted for Trump in 2024, according to recent analyses. The state has maintained Republican control of its Senate seats and has had GOP trifectas in government since 2017.
However, some signs indicate wavering support among voters in farm country due to economic pressures linked to Trump’s policies. Republican candidates in Iowa face increasingly competitive races. Representative Ashley Hinson, the state’s incumbent U.S. House member, is locked in a tight contest for the open Senate seat with Democratic challenger Josh Turek. Similarly, Republican gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn faces a close race against Democrat Rob Sand.
Hinson has sought to moderate her position by criticizing Trump’s approach to Iran and a controversial diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, yet she and other Republicans remain dependent on Trump’s base to secure votes.
Among attendees at Thursday’s rally, longtime supporters acknowledged the challenges posed by high diesel prices, which directly impact the costs of goods and farm operations. Retired couple Julie and Mike Pottorff expressed backing for Trump’s approach to Iran, hoping for a swift conclusion to the conflict, but said they felt the economic strain. “Diesel is the top of the pyramid. It affects the price of every good that’s on the shelf,” Mike Pottorff said.
Despite Trump’s assurances, some farmers remain critical of the administration’s policies, pointing to repercussions from trade disputes and tariff hikes on farm equipment that have increased costs. The ongoing conflict with Iran has also driven up fuel and fertilizer prices, squeezing farmers’ budgets. Real net farm income, including subsidies, has declined since 2022, though record corn harvests and relatively low debt levels have offered some relief, according to John Crespi, director of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University.
Government efforts such as an executive order reducing tariffs on imported ground beef have faced backlash from ranchers and farmers concerned about the impact on their livelihoods. At the same time, rural residents continue to grapple with rising expenses for food and housing, said Dee Davis, president of the Center for Rural Strategies. She described a growing disconnect between traditional beliefs in rural economic resilience and the current reality of financial hardship.
In response to mounting concerns, the White House has introduced several initiatives in recent weeks. Trump highlighted emergency waivers allowing increased ethanol blends in gasoline, a key issue for Iowa lawmakers, and championed tax provisions benefiting farm estate planning. Earlier this month, he signed an order to broaden access to tax-exempt dyed diesel for agricultural use and negotiated fuel releases with international partners.
Additionally, Trump announced $8 billion in direct aid to farmers during a rally earlier in the week in Kansas, a move intended to support those facing declining profit margins.
Nonetheless, experts remain skeptical about the long-term impact of these policies. Crespi noted that while direct payments alleviate some hardship, farmers prefer market stability over emergency aid. Davis echoed this sentiment, cautioning that such measures are unlikely to offset the broader economic difficulties confronting rural communities.