When U.S. President Donald Trump attends the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen this November, he will encounter a more assured Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to analysts. This marks their third scheduled meeting this year, following Xi’s recent state visit to Washington and Trump’s earlier visit to Beijing.
Experts attribute Xi’s increased confidence to several developments: a newly enhanced bilateral framework aimed at fostering a “constructive relationship of strategic stability” founded on respect, fairness, and reciprocity; a noticeably warmer tone during Xi’s Washington visit; and the advantage of China hosting the upcoming APEC forum. Hosting the event in Shenzhen, a key technology and innovation hub housing companies such as Huawei Technologies, BYD, and Tencent, affords Beijing greater control over the summit’s agenda and an opportunity to highlight its diplomatic influence in a multilateral setting.
“As the APEC host, China will have significantly more autonomy in agenda-setting, topic selection, and preparatory work than it did during the Washington summit, where the United States largely controlled the proceedings,” said Chen Qi, director of the Centre for U.S.-China Relations at Tsinghua University. He added that this shift allows China to more effectively demonstrate its diplomatic leadership beyond bilateral discussions.
The two countries confirmed Trump’s intention to attend the Shenzhen meeting, which will precede a likely fourth encounter between Xi and Trump at the G20 summit in Miami in December. The frequency of their interaction—four summits within eight months—is unprecedented in recent years and is seen by some Chinese analysts as a period of relative stability that may help maintain policy continuity and reduce the risk of abrupt shifts.
Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser at the International Crisis Group, said the APEC summit will enable Xi to underscore China’s expanding economic and diplomatic clout, including with several U.S. allies and partners, at a time when Trump faces potential political challenges in the midterm elections. Wyne noted Trump’s apparent desire to project a strong personal rapport with Xi, which was evident during their Washington meetings.
Zhang Chi, a senior researcher at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World, described the improved bilateral relationship as “a very successful strategic convergence” that places both powers on a more equal footing. He emphasized China’s resistance to Washington’s “maximum pressure” tactics, which Beijing views as ineffective and destabilizing.
Despite signals of growing cooperation, analysts urge caution regarding long-term stability. The progress appears closely linked to Trump’s personal engagement and domestic political considerations. Potential flashpoints, including forthcoming U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and geopolitical tensions elsewhere, could undermine diplomatic momentum. Zhang from the University of Hong Kong highlighted these risks, noting that Trump’s capacity to uphold agreements may be tested by distractions such as the midterm elections and the ongoing situation in Iran.
Following the Washington summit, the White House announced a mutual recommendation for tariff relief valued at approximately $30 billion on non-sensitive goods traded between the two countries. Observers see this as a positive step but one that requires ongoing diplomatic effort to sustain.
As both sides prepare for the APEC forum in Shenzhen, the evolving dynamics of the U.S.-China relationship remain closely watched by governments and markets worldwide.