As the United States approaches its midterm elections on November 3, European officials express skepticism over whether a potential shift in congressional power would significantly alter President Donald Trump’s approach on the international stage. Despite expectations that the Republican Party could face setbacks, analysts and diplomats in the European Union (EU) and NATO suggest that Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy style is unlikely to change markedly, regardless of the election outcome.

Since his return to the presidency last year, Trump has repeatedly unsettled European partners through abrupt shifts, including changing positions on support for Ukraine, imposing tariffs on allied economies, and making unconventional territorial proposals such as the suggestion to purchase Greenland. These actions have generated persistent concerns across European capitals about the reliability of the U.S. as a strategic partner.

Inside the EU, officials maintain a cautious public stance. European Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho declined to comment directly on the U.S. elections, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach. Privately, senior diplomats echoed similar sentiments, noting the difficulty in predicting election results and expressing tempered expectations that even a Democratic victory would lead to significant changes in U.S. foreign policy priorities.

Europe’s caution is particularly pronounced regarding support for Ukraine. While a Democratic-controlled Congress might present a more vocal pro-Kyiv stance, EU officials do not anticipate a substantial increase in U.S. aid or a renewed commitment to offset the estimated 70 billion euros Brussels aims to fill in Kyiv’s financial needs next year. Brussels has been urging other major donors, including the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan, to step up their contributions, reflecting uncertainty about the U.S. role.

Similarly, hopes for a reversal of Trump-era tariffs on European steel and other goods remain muted. Efforts during President Joe Biden’s administration to roll back such tariffs have been slow and partial, and polling indicates limited domestic support in the U.S. for fully eliminating these trade barriers.

NATO allies also await the outcome of a Pentagon review anticipated in December that is expected to recommend a reduction of U.S. troop deployments in Europe. Diplomats suggest the midterm election results will have minimal influence on the review’s direction. European partners are concurrently advancing initiatives to boost their own defense capabilities, indicating a degree of strategic recalibration irrespective of U.S. political developments.

There is also concern that the midterms could exacerbate tensions. Some experts warn that if Republicans retain control, Trump may feel emboldened, but if they lose ground, he might seek to deflect from domestic difficulties by intensifying international conflicts. Observers caution that historically, U.S. presidents facing domestic challenges have sometimes escalated foreign policy engagements to regain political momentum.

Overall, European officials anticipate continuity in the current uncertainties surrounding transatlantic relations. While the elections may shift the partisan makeup of Congress, the broader trajectory of U.S. foreign policy under Trump appears unlikely to see dramatic moderation after the midterms.