Avril Haines, former US director of national intelligence and current head of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has expressed concerns about the possibility of a third world war if global powers fail to establish effective mechanisms for managing conflict. Speaking during an interview at the British Library in London, Haines outlined several factors contributing to rising geopolitical tensions, including the erosion of the rules-based international order, increased state violence, weakening institutions, domestic political dysfunction, and the challenges posed by weapons of mass destruction.
Haines, who served as President Joe Biden’s principal intelligence adviser beginning in 2021, emphasized that managing the risks associated with weapons of mass destruction will become increasingly difficult. Reflecting on the current geopolitical climate, she described it as a period marked by instability and fragmentation, with weakened multilateral institutions and fracturing alliances contributing to an environment she characterized as an "age of post-diplomacy."
Her professional trajectory from running a bookstore café in Baltimore during the 1990s to holding senior national security positions highlights a varied background. Haines recounted how she and her husband, David, purchased and restored a former nightclub and brothel seized by the government, later hosting cultural events there. She credits her early life experiences, including caring for her chronically ill mother and studying judo in Japan, with shaping her resilience and perspective.
Regarding recent US foreign policy, Haines offered measured assessments. She acknowledged that while Biden’s administration was sometimes criticized for cautious responses to crises such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 2023 Hamas attack in Gaza, the approach was influenced by assessments of nuclear threats and allied hesitancy. She explained that US intelligence evaluated the potential for limited Russian nuclear use as a tactical risk, which factored into decision-making. Haines maintains that ongoing military support for Ukraine combined with sanctions aims to pressure Russia into negotiations by altering President Vladimir Putin’s strategic calculus.
On the conflict in Gaza, Haines was circumspect about Biden’s reluctance to openly criticize Israel, suggesting that former President Donald Trump’s unpredictability may have offered him additional leverage in dealings with Israeli leaders. She also cautioned that Trump’s decision-making style—relying heavily on instinct rather than expert advice—contributed to flawed policies, notably the escalation toward war with Iran encouraged by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s narrative of regime collapse. She described this as a strategic mistake that was insufficiently challenged within the national security community.
Looking ahead, Haines advocates for the formation of broad international coalitions to address global conflicts but expressed skepticism about the likelihood of such cooperation given current political realities. She views the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as a diplomatic model that highlights the importance of engagement, noting that US withdrawal under Trump removed critical leverage.
In considering US-China relations, Haines observed that Trump’s approach was less hawkish than some expected but framed largely through economic and business interests rather than national security concerns. She warned that this posture risked encouraging China to seek concessions on sensitive issues such as Taiwan, potentially resulting in agreements that would reduce US engagement in the region.
Haines’s vision for the future includes a "network approach," where regional collaborations coexist with global interactions, though she acknowledges the risk that such arrangements could devolve into spheres of influence dominated by the most powerful states in each region.
Through her analysis, Haines underscores the precarious state of international affairs, emphasizing the need for renewed diplomatic efforts amid rising populism and institutional decline. Her insights reflect the complex challenges faced by policymakers navigating an increasingly unstable global landscape.