President Donald Trump has signaled a shift toward a more restrained approach in the Middle East as his administration faces mounting challenges in the region, particularly relating to Iran and Gaza. Over the weekend, Trump described his new strategy on Iran as “low-keying it,” aiming to maintain pressure on Tehran primarily through economic means rather than escalating military action. However, limitations on U.S. influence were underscored when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly rejected Trump’s proposed peace plan for Gaza.
Trump’s approach comes amid growing political pressures at home and abroad. With the November midterm elections approaching, the administration is contending with depleted military supplies, sustained Iranian hostility, and rising fuel prices that have affected American voters. Despite deploying significant military assets, including two carrier groups in the Persian Gulf, Trump has struggled to achieve key objectives in both conflicts.
In a Sunday interview, Trump portrayed Iran as economically weakened due to inflation and sanctions, expressing confidence that the situation “will work out” in the administration’s favor. He acknowledged Tehran’s capacity to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz but insisted that Iran was financially strained. Yet experts caution against underestimating Iran’s resilience, noting that the economic burdens imposed on Tehran have been relatively more bearable than the impacts felt in the U.S.
While the White House maintains that Trump’s “bold actions” have strengthened American security and distinguished his policy from what it calls the appeasement of past administrations, analysts see signs of waning U.S. leverage. The rejection of Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace proposal by Netanyahu—a move many see as tied to the Israeli leader’s re-election campaign—illustrates the fracturing dynamic. Following the announcement of the plan on July 30, violence in Gaza increased, casting further doubt on prospects for resolution.
The broader regional landscape reflects uncertainty as well. Observers highlight a new defense pact among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan as indicative of Middle Eastern states hedging their bets amid doubts about U.S. long-term involvement. Meanwhile, Iran has maintained a firm stance, demanding the lifting of sanctions and the blockade as prerequisites for reopening critical shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran also asserted claims for war reparations in exchanges publicized by Trump.
Tensions remain heightened, with recent attacks targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz linked to Iran, including a tanker owned by the United Arab Emirates. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have also threatened to disrupt oil shipments through the Red Sea. Although direct negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials have not been confirmed, reports suggest ongoing talks involving Oman with U.S. input.
Still, some prominent voices within Trump’s political base argue that economic sanctions alone will not compel Tehran to change course and call for renewed military measures. As efforts to de-escalate face significant obstacles, Trump’s hopes of declaring victory in the Middle East appear increasingly elusive.