Psychologist Jennifer Freyd has identified a tactic commonly employed by perpetrators that involves denying wrongdoing, accusing others, and reversing the roles of victim and offender. Observers have noted this pattern in the political strategies of former President Donald Trump. With polls indicating that Republicans are likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections, Trump has asserted, without evidence, that Democrats plan to secure victories through illegitimate voting practices.

The dangers to American democracy highlighted by the January 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection remain acute and may have intensified ahead of the 2024 elections. Unlike in 2020, when officials such as then-Vice President Mike Pence and former Attorney General William Barr resisted Trump’s most extreme demands, the current Justice Department is perceived as less assertive. Additionally, the Supreme Court’s recent weakening of the Voting Rights Act has removed federal oversight of state election rules, allowing changes that could influence electoral outcomes. Several states have already implemented redistricting measures.

Legal challenges have successfully blocked some attempts by executive officials to assert unconstitutional control over election procedures, which constitutionally fall to the states. However, the broad range of efforts to influence voting means Republicans do not have to prevail in every instance; even small shifts of a few hundred or thousand votes in critical districts could be decisive. The pressure surrounding voting may also deter eligible voters, especially in communities with undocumented immigrants, amid reports—yet unconfirmed—of Immigration and Customs Enforcement presence near polling locations.

These developments contribute to a narrative that elections are at risk of being stolen, a claim likely to gain momentum after votes are counted. Trump has renewed calls for legal action against Mary Peltola, the Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, following reports that her campaign recruited a candidate with the same name as the Republican nominee to potentially confuse voters. Despite Peltola’s campaign denying wrongdoing, Alaska’s Republican governor has expressed hesitation about certifying the election results if she wins. While fielding similarly named candidates is not illegal, it raises ethical concerns and could, in some cases, result in criminal investigation. Nonetheless, this situation has been used by Republicans to allege Democratic electoral manipulation, even as experts argue the greatest threats to the democratic process come from Trump and his allies.

There are two major factors working to counteract these efforts. First, election officials—including Republicans—have been rigorously preparing to uphold electoral integrity despite facing harassment and threats. However, this is challenged by an increasing number of challengers aiming to take control of election boards and promote efforts to cast doubt on election outcomes. Second, a surge in early voting suggests that many Americans are motivated to participate as a defense of democracy. Experiences in recent elections internationally, such as Brazil’s rejection of a Trump-aligned far-right candidate, illustrate that a strong voter turnout reduces grounds for contesting results. Ultimately, widespread engagement and a clear electoral verdict remain the most effective protections for the democratic process.