U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to significantly reduce energy prices within his first year in office has not materialized, as evidence points to rising costs partly linked to his administration’s policies and international developments. In a campaign event in September 2024, Trump vowed to halve energy prices by unleashing American energy production, framing it as a key strategy to combat inflation. However, recent data and voter sentiment indicate growing discontent over surging energy expenses.
The Consumer Price Index released last week revealed a 9.1% increase in gasoline prices in September, the steepest rise since the conflict in Iran began. Gasoline prices, which represent the most visible energy cost to American consumers, are becoming a sensitive issue ahead of the midterm elections scheduled in just over two weeks. Historically, Republican candidates have leveraged calls for expanded domestic drilling and opposition to environmental regulations to gain support. For example, John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign supported offshore drilling, increasing public favor for fewer restrictions on fossil fuel development.
This cycle, however, voters appear to attribute rising energy costs less to domestic production shortfalls and more to policy decisions both at home and abroad. Polls conducted in October highlight that 60% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict, while 78% hold the White House responsible for increasing prices. In addition, a policy survey in September found that Americans prioritize measures such as limiting excessive utility profits, ending the Iran war, improving electrical grid efficiency, and even banning data centers as ways to lower bills—issues that do not align with traditional Republican messaging.
Particularly noteworthy is the growing scrutiny of data centers linked to artificial intelligence expansion, which have contributed to rising electricity rates. A report from the Centre for Economic Policy Research showed that the proliferation of data centers in certain utility areas can drive household electricity costs up by double digits. This challenge has political implications in key swing states. In Pennsylvania, for example, electricity prices climbed nearly 19% in 2025, with many voters associating the increases with data center development. Meanwhile, in Ohio, Senator Jon Husted faces potential electoral setbacks after advocating for the state to attract data centers, a stance contrasted with his opponent’s promise to shift the financial burden of higher electricity costs from consumers to companies.
Compounding Republican difficulties is the perception of crony capitalism. An August poll found that half of Republicans believe Trump’s business interests influence his policy decisions. Considering that domestic shale operations generally require high oil prices to remain profitable, critics argue that ties to Big Oil have undermined efforts to lower energy costs.
The ongoing conflict in Iran stands out as a major factor driving energy inflation. Since its outbreak, U.S. gasoline prices have increased 45%, highlighting the administration’s limited leverage in the Middle East. Meanwhile, China—the largest importer of Iranian oil—continues to benefit from reduced U.S. influence and the global shift toward electric vehicles and renewable energy accelerated by the turmoil.
Looking beyond the immediate political ramifications, the situation poses challenges for the broader “Make America Great Again” movement. While some supporters may prioritize ideological alignment over economic factors, rising inflation and unresolved foreign conflicts undermine the narrative of effective governance and negotiation that Trump has emphasized. Current polls show 57% of Republicans believe inflation is outpacing wage growth, and 40% disapprove of the administration’s inflation management.
Overall, the combination of international conflict, domestic policy challenges, and shifting voter concerns appear to have stymied efforts to make energy more affordable under the Trump administration’s current agenda.