A recent proposal from the Trump administration to exclude undocumented immigrants and immigrants without green cards from the 2030 census could potentially alter the distribution of congressional seats in the United States, shifting representation away from Republican-leaning states such as Texas and Florida toward states like Oregon and Minnesota. This projection is based on a 2024 analysis using population estimates from F.W.D.us, a policy organization focused on immigration issues.

The U.S. census, mandated every ten years by the Constitution, counts all residents and determines the apportionment of seats in the House of Representatives as well as the allocation of electoral votes. The 2030 census will set congressional representation for the decade starting in 2032. By excluding certain immigrant populations, the proposal represents a significant change in census methodology, and it faces likely legal challenges based on the 14th Amendment, which requires counting all persons residing in each state.

The analysis is derived from estimates using 2024 population data, the most recent available. It attempts to classify noncitizens by legal status—distinguishing between undocumented immigrants, green card holders, and other legal categories—based on census-like questions regarding length of stay, employment, and participation in public programs. According to these estimates, approximately 18 million people, or about 5 percent of the U.S. population, would be excluded under the proposed counting method.

Texas, Florida, and New Jersey would be particularly affected, with the policy excluding roughly 9 percent of their populations. The demographic shifts already projected without the policy indicate Texas and Florida would each gain two congressional seats under normal reapportionment. However, if the proposal were implemented, these states would gain only one seat apiece, with the other seats remaining with Minnesota and Oregon—states otherwise expected to lose seats based on population trends.

Experts caution that these estimates may not precisely reflect conditions in 2030, as demographic changes over six years could alter outcomes. Moreover, the policy could exacerbate existing undercounts of foreign-born residents. Past efforts to include a citizenship question on the census under the Trump administration predicted an 8 percent reduction in responses from nonimmigrant households, suggesting that excluding certain immigrant groups could reduce participation more broadly, including from legal residents and citizens.

Census figures do more than assign seats in Congress; they also influence the distribution of federal funding to states and localities. A lower count in immigrant-rich areas could lead to decreased federal resources, affecting public services and infrastructure. This potential fiscal impact adds to the controversy surrounding the administration’s proposal as it moves through political and legal review.