The United States faces heightened risks from this year’s potentially historic El Niño event amid significant reductions in capacity at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), experts and former officials warn. Since early 2025, the agency has experienced staff cuts of about 20%, along with the cancellation of contracts, grants, and the closure of research facilities, undermining its ability to forecast, research, and respond to extreme weather.
NOAA, widely regarded as a global leader in climate science and weather forecasting, has seen its National Weather Service (NWS) particularly impacted. Staffing shortages have forced delays in data collection, reduced operational hours, and left hundreds of meteorological and technical positions vacant across its 122 forecast offices. These reductions have raised concerns about the agency’s ability to handle simultaneous extreme weather events fueled by the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to intensify through the northern hemisphere’s autumn and winter.
El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, typically drives more severe storms, higher temperatures, and elevated sea levels along the U.S. West Coast. This year’s event could lead to severe weather patterns including flooding, landslides, and debris flows, with California particularly vulnerable to sea-level rises of up to one foot.
Tom Di Liberto, a former NOAA climate scientist, said the agency has not yet been tested under the pressure of recent cuts but warned that the coming winter may reveal critical vulnerabilities. NOAA's forecasts and warnings are essential for public safety as well as for sectors such as agriculture, emergency management, and maritime operations. Moreover, NOAA data supports international weather monitoring and disaster response efforts, amplifying the impact of its diminished capacity worldwide.
Since January 2025, NOAA’s workforce decreased by more than 3,000 employees, according to data from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management. Public affairs staff were reduced by around 50%, information technology workers by 27%, and scientists by over 1,500, with very limited new hiring. The NWS alone reported a 10% drop in meteorologists and technicians as the country entered autumn, even after efforts to replenish staffing following the layoffs.
The consequences of these reductions have already appeared. Forecast offices have struggled to keep pace with monitoring tasks, leading to delays in weather balloon launches critical to tornado forecasting in the Great Plains and insufficient warnings during floods in rural Alaska. A Government Accountability Office review also found that cuts have hampered the delivery of multilingual weather alerts, putting roughly 26 million people at greater risk.
Funding cuts have affected climate research as well, with more than $28 million in grants eliminated in fiscal 2026 — a 37% drop compared to previous years. The Trump administration has proposed slashing NOAA’s budget by $1.6 billion next year, representing a 26% reduction, though parts of that proposal may face resistance in Congress.
Former NOAA officials, including Rick Spinrad, who led the agency under the Biden administration, stress that these staffing and operational gaps threaten both daily forecasting and long-term research. They caution the agency cannot sustain its historic capabilities under current policies. Meanwhile, projects crucial for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as autonomous robotic floats and satellite investments, face termination or severe cuts, potentially creating information gaps during this critical El Niño period.
Monica Medina, NOAA’s principal deputy administrator during the Obama era, expressed deep concern about the potential loss of life and reduced protection for communities at a time when reliable climate data is most needed. Experts also highlight the lost opportunities to learn from this El Niño event, which could provide valuable insights into coping with future climate extremes.
With multiple extreme weather threats looming and NOAA’s resources constrained, officials warn the United States may be ill-prepared for the cascading hazards this winter, emphasizing the urgency of sustained investment and support for climate science and forecasting infrastructure.