Significant budget cuts and staffing reductions at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Trump administration have raised concerns about the United States’ ability to effectively forecast and respond to extreme weather events, experts and former officials say. These concerns come as the country faces a potentially historic El Niño this winter, a climate phenomenon linked to increased risks of storms, floods, and other severe weather conditions.

Since January 2025, NOAA has experienced a loss of approximately 20% of its workforce, equating to over 3,000 employees, according to data from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management. The reductions have affected various divisions, including the National Weather Service (NWS), which oversees 122 forecast offices and is responsible for issuing millions of forecasts and warnings annually. The agency has struggled to fill vacant roles, with hundreds of meteorological and technical positions remaining open. Between January and August 2026, NOAA added only 525 new hires, leaving a considerable staffing deficit.

Operational impacts have already become evident. Delays in weather balloon releases have left certain regions, such as the Great Plains, more vulnerable to tornadoes. In Alaska, limited forecasting resources hampered early warnings ahead of floods that displaced over 1,500 people. Additionally, a reduction in multilingual alerts has increased risk for approximately 26 million non-English-speaking residents, according to a Government Accountability Office report. Staff morale has declined amid the challenges, with many employees reportedly working extended hours to maintain essential services.

The agency has also faced significant budget disruptions. The Trump administration canceled numerous grants, resulting in a loss exceeding $28 million in funding for climate research and related projects at state, local, nonprofit, and academic levels. Analysis indicates that the number of climate research grants awarded in fiscal year 2026 fell by 37% compared to averages from 2021 to 2024. Despite mounting criticism, the administration has proposed further cuts: next year’s NOAA budget may see a reduction of $1.6 billion, or 26%, though some of these proposed reductions face opposition in Congress.

Experts warn that NOAA’s diminished capacity could undermine the nation’s preparedness for the wide-ranging effects of the intensifying El Niño, which is expected to bring heightened storm activity to the western U.S., raise sea levels along the California coast, and increase risks of landslides and flash flooding. Tom Di Liberto, a former NOAA climate scientist, said the agency’s abilities have not been thoroughly tested since the cuts began but noted the upcoming winter may reveal critical vulnerabilities. Monica Medina, who served as NOAA’s principal deputy administrator during the Obama administration, expressed concern that these resource constraints could lead to loss of life and inadequate protection during emergencies.

NOAA’s role extends beyond U.S. borders, providing data and forecasting vital to global weather monitoring, disaster response coordination, and environmental research. Many scientists worldwide rely on NOAA’s satellites and data-sharing partnerships. The current staffing and budget shortfalls, experts say, not only threaten domestic safety but also have implications for international climate resilience efforts.

As the country braces for a potentially disruptive weather season linked to El Niño, questions remain about whether NOAA has the capacity and resources to meet the challenge effectively. The situation highlights broader concerns about the preparedness of climate and weather agencies amid increasing environmental risks.