Turkey is advancing plans to establish new trade routes designed to bypass geopolitical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to secure alternative corridors for goods and energy flows linking Asia to Europe. Central to this strategy is the potential reopening of the border with Armenia, closed for more than three decades, which Ankara aims to transform into a critical junction for overland trade.
Efforts to reinstate the Alican border crossing with Armenia have recently accelerated, with Turkish authorities installing passport control systems in preparation for resumption of transit. The initiative is part of a broader project known as the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (Tripp), a US-backed effort linked to diplomatic efforts to resolve the protracted Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Turkish officials have indicated that border reopening will follow the finalization of a peace agreement between the two countries.
Turkey’s government views the development of this alternative route as a means to position the country as a stable and secure trade and energy hub amid disruptions to traditional corridors caused by regional conflicts and sanctions. Since Iran suggested the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz in mid-2023, Ankara has intensified efforts to promote its territory as a reliable transit zone, further highlighting its geostrategic position bridging Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently emphasized Turkey’s role as “an island of stability” and underscored ongoing discussions about alternative energy transmission lines to mitigate risks associated with maritime chokepoints like Hormuz and the Suez Canal. The recent rerouting of commercial air traffic between Europe and Asia over Turkish airspace illustrated the country’s emerging logistic prominence.
At the core of Turkey’s vision are two major infrastructure projects. One is the Development Road, a planned road and rail network linking the Gulf region with Europe via Turkey, Iraq, and beyond. While promising in scope, it remains in initial planning stages, requiring substantial investment and facing challenges in unstable areas such as Iraq.
The second, and more immediately actionable, is the expansion of the Middle Corridor. This overland route connects China to Europe through the Caucasus and Turkey. Its expansion involves the Tripp project, which proposes a new rail and road link passing through Armenia to Azerbaijan, complementing the existing corridor via Georgia. Turkish construction firms have reportedly begun work on the Azerbaijani side, alongside rail network extensions within Turkey.
Trade volume along the Middle Corridor has grown significantly in recent years, with projections suggesting an increase from 5 million to 20 million tonnes annually if infrastructure enhancements proceed as planned. However, several factors may constrain growth, including ferry crossings over the Caspian Sea, varying rail gauges, and complex customs procedures at multiple borders. These operational challenges make the route slower and less competitive compared to the established northern route through Russia, which currently handles substantially higher freight volumes.
The Tripp route’s proximity to Iran raises security concerns, while Russia remains cautious given its historical influence in the Caucasus. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Armenia that closer trade ties with Europe could affect Russian gas supplies to the country. Additionally, the project’s success depends heavily on sustained US political and financial support, which remains uncertain amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Turkey’s strategic geography ensures its ongoing importance as a nexus for energy transit and international commerce. The Bosphorus Strait currently sees over 3.5 million barrels of oil passing daily, while pipelines from Azerbaijan to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan transport more than a million barrels per day. Following Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government agreed recently to reopen the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, adding further capacity. The Tripp initiative also holds potential to revive stalled pipeline projects, such as the Trans-Caspian pipeline for Central Asian gas exports to Europe.
As regional tensions persist and global supply chains seek greater resilience, Turkey’s push to become a hub for alternative trade routes reflects both its geographic advantages and the complexities inherent in reconfiguring Eurasian logistics networks.