Two container ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz following missile strikes amid a surge in Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, marking the sharpest escalation in such incidents since the onset of the US-Israel conflict with Iran. The attacks appear aimed at disrupting traffic through this critical waterway, potentially in an effort to undermine US attempts to reduce fuel prices ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank Wednesday after an attack the previous day, while hours later the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged Cape Dao also went down near the strait. Data from the International Maritime Organization indicated the Cape Dao was struck by a projectile on September 23. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported at least five maritime incidents, including drone strikes, over the past 48 hours in the area surrounding the strait.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that the GFS Pride sank after hitting a naval mine while transiting the strait without authorization, describing the vessel’s route as illegal and dangerous. Iranian state media showed images of the ship listing in the water and emitting thick smoke, noting it was carrying 2,500 containers. However, UKMTO suggested that both vessels were struck by unidentified projectiles, casting doubt on Tehran’s version of events.
The strait, a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments, has witnessed a sharp rise in attacks recently. UKMTO monitoring noted six vessels were targeted in a single day last Sunday, with a total of 24 ships hit over two weeks ending October 11. Among these were three refined petroleum product tankers and two crude oil tankers. The uptick in attacks has led to a significant reduction in oil shipments traversing the strait.
Two Iranian officials indicated that Tehran has implemented new tactics against ships it deems in violation of its restrictions, involving changes in both the type and frequency of the assaults. According to one official, one objective of these tactics is to influence the US midterm elections by frustrating efforts to lower global oil prices. The officials said these strategic decisions were made at the highest levels of Iran’s leadership and executed through the country's established command structures.
A US military source, speaking anonymously, confirmed a shift in Iranian methods, noting that after substantial degradation of Iran’s radar capabilities by US forces, the IRGC has begun deploying unarmed spotters in small boats to identify targets—including US naval vessels. In a recent, previously unreported incident, US forces confronted a dhow believed to be operating as a spotter platform for the IRGC. After ordering the occupants to abandon ship, US forces destroyed the vessel without causing casualties.
Meanwhile, US military commanders continue to guide commercial vessels through safer routes closer to Omani waters to mitigate the risk of attacks. The intensified Iranian campaign and its timing underscore Tehran’s determination to assert leverage ahead of the US elections amid ongoing tensions in the region.