Days before the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) allegedly warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of an impending major operation planned by Hamas, according to an investigation published recently. The report, based on information from senior foreign officials and close associates, states that the UAE leader held a 45-minute conversation with Netanyahu around September 27 during which he conveyed concerns that Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, was preparing a significant and potentially devastating assault. MBZ reportedly emphasized the risk of severe bloodshed, regional destabilization, and harm to the Abraham Accords.
Netanyahu is said to have dismissed the warning, expressing confidence that Hamas’s primary focus was on activity in the West Bank and reassuring that Israel was prepared for various scenarios. The warning from MBZ was not mentioned in subsequent Israeli security briefings before the October 7 attack, with former heads of the Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security agency, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stating they were unaware of the UAE’s direct communication.
The investigation further revealed that the warning originated through a Palestinian intermediary with links to both Hamas and Israeli security channels, who passed on messages from Sinwar about a forthcoming “earthquake” operation described as “the mother of all surprises.” In September, Sinwar reportedly conveyed these intentions to select parties, which eventually led UAE leadership to alert Israeli authorities on September 15. Following this, Israeli security officials held an assessment and were warned that Israel was on a “collision course,” with recommendations made for offensive or defensive measures ahead of the Jewish holidays. However, no decisive action was taken at that time.
In addition to the UAE warning, the Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel reportedly contacted Netanyahu around the same period, issuing similar cautions about a planned large-scale Hamas operation. Netanyahu reportedly maintained that Israel controlled the Gaza situation and was focusing security efforts on the West Bank. Neither these warnings nor the UAE’s direct message were referenced by Netanyahu in a key Israeli security discussion on October 1.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office disputed the report, stating that no direct warning was given to Netanyahu by the UAE prior to October 7 and that any relevant intelligence was shared only through official channels. Meanwhile, the UAE Foreign Ministry declined to confirm or deny the details of the report, emphasizing ongoing intelligence cooperation between the two countries but refusing to engage in speculation or respond to every media claim.
Responses from Israeli political and security figures have been critical of Netanyahu’s handling of the warnings. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, speaking after the report’s publication, asserted the authenticity of the claims and held Netanyahu accountable for dismissing clear signs of an imminent attack, asserting that the prime minister bore direct responsibility for the October 7 tragedy. Similarly, Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the IDF, criticized Netanyahu for failing to elevate the warnings to the defense establishment or take adequate preventive measures. Eisenkot called for the establishment of a state commission of inquiry once a new government is formed, aiming to investigate the intelligence failures and decision-making that preceded the attack, with a view to preventing future crises.
The report has intensified scrutiny on Israel’s intelligence and security preparedness prior to the October 7 assault, highlighting tensions over the interpretation and response to early warnings from regional partners.