UK population growth at lowest in 30 years due to migration and birth rates

By the Editorial Team · Friday, October 2, 2026

The UK’s population growth slowed to its lowest rate in nearly 30 years, reaching 69.5 million in mid-2025 due to a sharp drop in net migration and the lowest birth rates in over four decades. This decline signals potential future population decreases, with projections suggesting deaths may outpace births by 2026 and an overall population decline possible by the mid-2050s.

The United Kingdom's population growth has slowed to its lowest level in nearly three decades, primarily due to a significant decline in net migration and reduced birth rates, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The estimated population reached 69.5 million in mid-2025, representing an increase of 227,665 people over the previous year, or a growth rate of 0.33 percent. This marks the smallest annual rise since 1998, excluding disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Net migration—the difference between the number of people arriving in the UK and those leaving—fell sharply to 222,900 in the year to mid-2025, a decline of nearly two-thirds from 651,700 in the prior 12-month period. Concurrently, the number of births dropped to 652,400, the lowest total recorded in over 40 years, while deaths numbered 647,500. This produced a natural increase, the difference between births and deaths, of just 4,900 individuals, contributing minimally to overall population growth.

The slowdown follows a period of more robust population expansion between 2022 and 2024, when growth rates ranged from 0.97 to 1.34 percent. These earlier increases were fueled by a surge in international migration, peaking at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023. This surge, colloquially known as the “Boriswave,” was linked to the relaxation of immigration rules under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which allowed for a substantial influx of foreign workers and students.

Subsequent policy changes by both Conservative and Labour governments have sought to reduce migration numbers. Measures include raising the minimum salary threshold for foreign workers from £26,200 to £38,700 and restricting the ability of students and care workers to bring dependents to the UK.

Regional population trends vary across the UK’s four nations. Wales experienced its first population decline in ten years, while Scotland and Northern Ireland saw negligible growth. England alone recorded a modest increase. London’s population decreased for the first time since 1987, attributed to its lowest annual net international migration figure on record at 51,839, down from 156,048 the previous year. This decline in migration is significant for London, which relies heavily on incoming migrants to offset domestic outmigration to other parts of the UK.

Projections released earlier this year by the ONS indicate that deaths may begin to exceed births annually starting in 2026, a trend that could eventually stall overall population growth. According to these projections, the UK population could start to decline in the mid-2050s. However, the ONS emphasizes these projections are based on current and historical trends and should not be interpreted as precise forecasts.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.