Over the course of the summer, Russia has faced a mounting fuel supply crisis exacerbated by a series of long-range drone attacks by Ukraine targeting key oil refining facilities. Once the world’s second-largest crude oil producer, Russia has been compelled to seek alternative sources of gasoline amid significant disruptions to its domestic refining capacity.
In a notable development, Russia purchased 200,000 barrels of gasoline from Turkey this week, with the shipment moving from the port of Mersin to the Baltic port of Primorsk aboard the sanctioned tanker Wendrix. This represents the fifth confirmed seaborne delivery of vehicle fuel to Russia this summer, following prior shipments from India’s Vadinar refinery routed through Egypt, totaling approximately one million barrels.
Additionally, Russia has entered into an agreement with the Kondensat refinery in western Kazakhstan to process Russian crude oil externally, with around 70% of the refined fuel expected to be transported back to Russia by rail. The refinery currently lacks pipeline connections to Russia, necessitating this logistical workaround. Another response to supply shortfalls has been a sharp increase in fuel imports from Belarus, a close ally in the Ukraine conflict, which saw imports surge by a factor of 141 in June compared to the previous year.
Despite hopes expressed earlier in the summer that the fuel shortages might ease, the situation deteriorated in August. Several Russian regions reimposed or intensified restrictions on gasoline sales as Ukraine escalated its campaign of attacks on oil processing infrastructure. Among the impacted facilities, the Orsk refinery was forced to shut down entirely.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged this week that the energy landscape remains fluid. “The situation is changing every day. We’re constantly monitoring it and are making decisions at our headquarters,” he stated, adding that federal coordination with regional authorities and companies is ongoing multiple times per week.
Ukraine’s intensified attacks—18 refinery strikes recorded in August alone, matching the previous month’s tally—aim to undermine Russia’s economic capacity to sustain its military operations in Ukraine. Analysts report that even before this recent surge in attacks, Russian refinery output had already fallen by nearly 28%.
Military commentator Mick Ryan emphasized in June that Ukraine’s strategy is focused on shifting Moscow’s cost-benefit calculations. “Sustained pressure on Russia’s economic foundations will, over time, force a recalculation that battlefield performance could not,” Ryan said, highlighting that the campaign seeks to challenge President Vladimir Putin’s assumption that time favors his objectives.
Experts from the Royal United Services Institute have noted that Russia’s growing fuel shortages increasingly strain the national budget. The sustained damage to refinery infrastructure not only hampers domestic fuel supplies but also forces Moscow to raise spending to maintain internal distribution, all while losing revenue from curtailed exports. Export restrictions further exacerbate the issue by limiting access to higher-priced foreign markets and reducing foreign currency earnings, complicating the ability of Russian oil firms to recoup operational costs.
As Ukraine continues to target Russia’s fuel supply chain, the Kremlin appears increasingly reliant on a patchwork of external sources and complex logistics, underscoring the economic pressures generated by the ongoing conflict and sanctions regime.